Joe Biden is still refusing to discuss an exposé by the New York Post alleging the former vice president’s youngest son, Hunter, leveraged his ties to the Obama administration for the benefit of a Ukrainian natural gas conglomerate.
The Democrat nominee, who has long struggled to explain his son’s overseas business deals, was asked about the story during a campaign swing through North Carolina on Sunday. Biden, in particular, was asked by a reporter if he had any comment about revelations that the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) had seized Hunter’s laptop last year via subpoena.
Video of Biden’s encounter, which was shared on social media by President Donald Trump’s reelection campaign, shows that the Democrat nominee refused to even listen to the reporter’s question, opting to walk away as soon as the reporter mentions the word “FBI.”
WATCH: Joe Biden refuses to answer a question about the FBI seizing his son Hunter’s laptop last year.
Earlier this week the Post reported that it had obtained emails from a laptop that allegedly belonged to Hunter Biden. The laptop was supposedly dropped off by Hunter at a local computer repair shop in Delaware in April 2019 after being subject to water damage. When no one returned to pick it up, a technician at the shop claims to have gone through the hard drive sometime in the summer of 2019 and proceeded to share it with former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
FBI investigators seized the laptop in December of last year as part of an ongoing investigation into foreign election interference. It remains unclear if the laptop, and its corresponding content, is authentic.
On Wednesday, one of the emails published by the Post, in particular, stirred national attention. The email, purportedly exchanged between Hunter and an executive with the Ukrainian-based natural gas conglomerate Burisma Holdings, alleges that a meeting took place between the former vice president and a representative of the company in 2015.
The meeting supposedly took place nearly a year after Hunter had joined Burisma’s board of directors. At the time, Burisma was facing heavy pressure from both the Ukrainian government and U.S. diplomatic officials over allegations of corruption. Adding to the potential perception of a conflict of interest, provided the meeting did take place, is that at the time the former vice president was the Obama administration’s point man on Ukraine.
Since the Post’s exposé, the former vice president, himself, has refused to comment on the matter. Biden has stuck to that strategy even as his campaign has suggested that although no official meeting with the Burisma representative may have taken place, it may have occurred in an unofficial capacity.
“Biden’s campaign would not rule out the possibility that the former VP had some kind of informal interaction with [the representative] which wouldn’t appear on Biden’s official schedule,” Politico reported this week.
Former Vice President Joe Biden’s campaign manager is warning supporters the upcoming general election will “come down to the wire” and many of the critical swing states “are functionally tied.”
On Saturday, the Hillpublished excerpts of a memo that Jennifer O’Malley Dillon, the Democrat nominee’s campaign manager, sent to supporters and activists urging them not to take Biden’s lead in the polls as an assurance of victory.
“We cannot become complacent because the very searing truth is that Donald Trump can still win this race, and every indication we have shows that this thing is going to come down to the wire,” Dillon wrote, adding Democrats did not want to repeat the mistakes of 2016 when turnout dropped because polls inaccurately showed former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton winning in a landslide.
O’Malley Dillon further cautioned supporters in the key 2020 battlegrounds the “race is far closer than some of the punditry we’re seeing on Twitter and on TV would suggest.”
“While we see robust leads at the national level, in the states we’re counting on to carry us to victory like Arizona and North Carolina we’re only up by three points.” she wrote. “We also know that even the best polling can be wrong, and that variables like turnout mean that in a number of critical states we are functionally tied — and that we need to campaign like we’re trailing.”
O’Malley Dillon’s suggestion the race is “far closer” than many believe comes only days after she took to social media to implore supporters and volunteers to ignore polls and continue investing time and resources in the race.
While some have suggested the Biden campaign is simply attempting to keep voters energized until Election Day, there are also some indicators that the presidential contest is tightening. C-SPAN
Polls in recent days have shown Biden leading the incumbent, President Donald Trump, by narrow margins in states like Arizona and Wisconsin. Meanwhile, in states like North Carolina and Florida, polls show the race tied.
Compounding problems for Democrats is that GOP voter registration has narrowed the voter registration gap in numerous swing states.
In Pennsylvania, which Trump won narrowly four years ago, the GOP has seen its support grow substantially. According to a voter registration report released in June by Pennsylvania’s Department of State, Republicans added 258,705 new registrants between December 2015 and December 2019. Over the same period, in comparison, Democrats only gained 85,779 new registrants.
The GOP’s success has narrowed the Democrats’ voter advantage in Pennsylvania to just slightly more than 710,000 voters. Although that split seems large, Democrats had an even larger registration advantage in 2016 when Trump bested former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the state by just 44,292 votes out of more than six million ballots. Trump’s margin of victory, narrow though it was, made him the first Republican to carry Pennsylvania since President George H.W. Bush’s 1988 landslide.
Recent polls show the GOP’s investment in voter registration might be paying off. A survey released by the Trafalgar Group on Tuesday found Trump and Biden statistically tied in the Keystone State.
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) told Breitbart News exclusively on Saturday that his Democrat opponent, Cal Cunningham, is “not fit to serve in the United States Senate” given the fact he is under investigation by the U.S. Army Reserves over his sex scandal.
Compounding Cunningham’s scandal, together with the recent revelations about Democrat presidential nominee former Vice President Joe Biden being directly directly implicated in the corruption surrounding his son, Hunter Biden, Tillis added that the entire Democrat ticket in North Carolina is compromised and “running on a campaign of dishonesty driven out of their basements.”
“Joe Biden has not been truthful,” Tillis said on Breitbart News Saturday on SiriusXM 125 the Patriot Channel this weekend. “He said he had no knowledge of it. Now we see communications where he clearly did. I said this months ago. I said, my goodness, you and your son are on the back porch talking about how things are going, how the job’s going? You mean to tell me that his father did not know what he was doing in China and Ukraine making hundreds of thousands of dollars in a position he had no expertise for? And now it appears that those communications show how Hunter Biden used his father’s position to get paid and paid large sums of money, and now we even believe there may have been some access. But it goes beyond that. I don’t think Joe Biden has been completely truthful. It even goes into his inability to tell the truth on where he is on packing the court. ‘If you wanna know my position, I’ll tell you after I get elected.’ We know his position. Chuck Schumer will pass a bill that expands the Supreme Court and Joe Biden will sign it. Cal Cunningham would go to Washington and vote for the nuclear option that would lay the groundwork for the packing of the courts. He’d vote for Chuck Schumer. They’re not being truthful. Cal Cunningham is saying whatever he can to get elected, and Joe Biden is trying to not say whatever he knows he has to, or what he believes, to get elected. You’re right. Up and down the ticket, the Democrats are running on a campaign of dishonesty driven out of their basements. The American people, and people of North Carolina, I don’t know if they’re watching, but if they do, then clearly President Trump is going to get re-elected and I’m going to get re-elected.”
The explosive revelations about the Biden family’s corruption, which directly implicates Joe Biden himself as well as several other members of his family, is hardly the only corruption inside the Democrat Party. Cunningham, the Democrat nominee for U.S. Senate in North Carolina, was caught in an affair recently that has upended his race against Tillis. On Saturday, as Tillis appeared on the show, reports of a second mistress emerged–all while Cunningham dodges the press and any questions about this—and while the U.S. Army Reserves investigates.
Asked to summarize the Cunningham scandal, Tillis told Breitbart News that it all began when Cunningham himself framed his campaign around “truth” and “honor”—values he clearly himself does not follow, as evidenced by the scandal. Tillis said that this scandal demonstrates that Cunningham is “not fit to serve” in the U.S. Senate, especially while he’s under investigation for his misconduct.
“You know, it all started when Cal Cunningham was talking about ‘this campaign is about truth matters and honor,’” Tillis said. “Then we hear the story break about his having an affair, which was confirmed by the mistress–the wife of a wounded warrior. Cal Cunningham is a Lt. Colonel in the army reserves. He is now under investigation by the Department of Defense for at least a violation of the code of conduct. If they were under the same command and he was active at the time, he could be brought up for more serious charges. After the story broke, he has gone silent. He’s not doing any campaign events. He’s cancelled a number of fundraising events. I’ve been traveling across the state… I’m about to get in my truck and head out again today. He hasn’t responded to the press. I have not seen the story, Matt, this morning, but I guess another revelation occurred this morning. He’s not fit to serve in the U.S. Senate. Can you imagine somebody who’s under investigation by the army sitting on Senate Armed Services? Makes no sense.”
Tillis also said that, given the fact that Cunningham has dodged the press on this and not been forthcoming about it—he refused to answer four separate times when asked last week if there was a second mistress, and now reports suggest there is—makes this a national security risk. Tillis said that foreign actors could exploit things that Cunningham is hiding in his background to “compromise” him if he were elected. Tillis noted, too, that Cunningham has a history of dishonesty on every other major issue including tax policy, energy and environmental policy, court packing, and even healthcare. Military experts told Breitbart News for a previous story, too, that there is a serious risk for “blackmail” of Cunningham if he were to be elected.
“That’s why the investigation has to move forward, because obviously foreign actors try to find things about elected officials that could compromise them,” Tillis said. “It’s a potential risk. That’s why I believe the Army is doing their job beyond just the code of conduct violation. We have to go back. Cal Cunningham broke a tax pledge when he ran for the U.S. Senate, said he wouldn’t raise taxes, but raised it by a billion dollars after he was elected. During the primary he said he was for the Green New Deal, for Medicare for all. He won the primary saying whatever he had to to get elected. Now he says he’s against it. He says he wouldn’t pack the courts, but he’ll vote for Chuck Schumer, who has promised to pack the court. If North Carolina loses this Senate seat that I occupy for the people of North Carolina, we’re gonna see Cal Cunningham go to Washington and do whatever Chuck Schumer asks him to do. Chuck Schumer has already spent over $85 million in this race so far. All in, $233 million, because they know if they can win North Carolina, they’re going to win the majority in the U.S. Senate. Cal’s going to say and do anything right now, and he’s doing everything to avoid the press because he doesn’t want to be held accountable for his actions. This wasn’t years ago. This was in his own home in July. The height of arrogance of him out there—I know there’s another story out there today. I haven’t seen it but got a text right before I came on this show, but we’ll see what we’re going to learn.”
What’s more, Cunningham—according to some of the texts released—mocked the veteran husband of his first mistress who had reportedly considered suicide. Veteran suicide, a major issue in America, is something Tillis has been fighting in his time in the U.S. Senate—especially since North Carolina has a huge veteran community. Veterans, meanwhile, are speaking out about Cunningham, urging North Carolinians to vote instead for Tillis over Cunningham’s disrespect of the veteran community. His mistress’s husband, the veteran in question, has called for Cunningham to end his campaign for Senate.
“It’s something I’ve been working on since I’ve been in the Senate on the Veteran’s Affairs Committee,” Tillis said. “Also, keep in mind, he was a prosecutor. He’s a lawyer. He’s in the army. He was a lawyer. He has prosecuted cases under the military code, so he knows exactly what he did was breaking the very laws that he went into a courtroom and prosecuted others for, but you’re right, he’s an officer. The other gentleman was an enlisted, non-commissioned officer. I don’t know his final rank when he retired or moved to veteran status. The veteran population in North Carolina, we have one of the largest in the country. Our military installations at Fort Bragg and Camp Lejeune are among two the largest in the country. This matters to the military. It matters to military families. What matters is the fact that he has not been truthful. You can’t build a campaign on the foundation of truth and honor and be untruthful and dishonorable while you’re recording those ads, while you’re talking about your priorities and then having admitted to it. The affair is not in controversy. He’s admitted to it. Now the question is how many were there? One final note for the family, the wounded warrior, the wife of Cal Cunningham, his teenage kids. I just hope everybody recognizes that the substance is terrible, but what I am concerned with is his dishonesty and dishonor, and we should hold him accountable but also respect the family members as we go through this process.”
LISTEN TO SEN. THOM TILLIS ON BREITBART NEWS SATURDAY:
The United States Army Reserve is investigating North Carolina Senate candidate James Calvin “Cal” Cunningham III, a lieutenant colonel who is alleged of having an extramarital affair in potential violation of the Uniform Code of Military Justice (UCMJ).
“The Army Reserve is investigating the matters involving Lt. Col. James Cunningham. As such, we are unable to provide further details at this time,” Army Reserve spokesman Lt. Col. Simon Flake said in a statement Wednesday morning.
The acknowledgment that the Army Reserve is looking into his behavior could cast a cloud over Cunningham’s image as well as career in the military, since extramarital affairs are prohibited and punishable under the UCMJ.
Nationalfile.com first reported that Cunningham and a public relations executive, Arlene Guzman Todd, exchanged sexually-charged text messages that talked about kissing and more.
On Tuesday, Guzman Todd confirmed that they had an affair and more text messages emerged that indicated the two engaged in sexual intercourse in Cunningham’s family home, and that she had nude photos of him and had jokingly told a friend she would send them to his opponent if he continued ignoring her.
In a statement to the Associated Press, Guzman Todd apologized for the “pain and embarrassment, and disrespect I’ve caused to my immediate family, loved ones, and everyone affected by this situation.”
“A few months back, I displayed a lapse in judgment by engaging in a relationship with Cal Cunningham during a period of marital separation,” she said. “The relationship spanned several months and consisted primarily of a series of text exchanges and an in-person encounter.”
Guzman Todd is married to an Army combat veteran who deployed to war five times.
Cunningham, himself a married father of two, has also confirmed the texts are authentic. He said in a statement last week, “I have hurt my family, disappointed my friends, and am deeply sorry. The first step in repairing those relationships is taking complete responsibility, which I do. I ask that my family’s privacy be respected in this personal matter.”
Some legal experts say Cunningham only violated UCMJ if he was on active duty at the time. Reservists are usually on active duty one weekend a month and two weeks out of the year, although that can vary depending on the reservist and his or her circumstance.
The National File reported on Tuesday that North Carolina Senate Democrat candidate Cal Cunningham’s mistress, Arlene Guzman Todd, has nude photos of Cunningham.
The National File’s Patrick Howley reported that Guzman Todd also had sex in Cunningham’s family home. Cunningham has a wife and two children.
In one text message between Guzman Todd and her friend, Cunningham’s mistress said she is “just going to send his opponent his naked photos” due to his lack of interest in her.
In one text message, Guzman Todd said she spent a week with Cunningham in his family home having sexual intercourse and only left because there was “something weird about f**king in another woman’s house.”
The National File reportedly has more yet to be published text messages between Cunningham and Guzman Todd. The Cunningham campaign has yet to respond to a request for comment regarding the National File report.
The Associated Press (AP) confirmed the affair with the Guzman Todd on Tuesday.
Cunningham apologized for the scandal in a statement on Friday, although the Senate candidate has yet to explain the extent of the reported affair.
He said, “I have hurt my family, disappointed my friends, and am deeply sorry. The first step in repairing those relationships is taking complete responsibility, which I do. I ask that my family’s privacy be respected in this personal matter.”
An East Carolina University (ECU) poll released on Tuesday found that Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) leads Cunningham by one point.
National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) spokesperson Joanna Rodriguez said in a statement on Tuesday that North Carolina voters must know the extent of his affair.
“Cal Cunningham has centered his entire campaign around duty and honor, all while he was sexting and carrying on an affair with the wife of an Army combat veteran,” Rodriguez said.
“North Carolinians deserve answers about Cunningham’s misconduct so they can judge whether he is fit to represent them,” Rodriguez added.
Sean Moran is a congressional reporter for Breitbart News. Follow him on Twitter @SeanMoran3.
President Donald Trump’s pathway back into the White House is widening, as allies of the president see after a long and brutal summer of the president climbing back into contention in enough battleground states to seal the deal and win a second term. This comprehensive look at the battlefield as it stands now comes as the two candidates are set to face off in Cleveland, Ohio, for their first of three debates this general election season ahead of the November 3 general election.
To win the White House back, Trump would need to secure at least 270 electoral votes by cobbling together a coalition of states—much like he did in 2016—to get him across the finish line.
Trump allies break down the electoral college into four tiers. Tier one, or the red states, includes the following states: Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Alaska, Wyoming, Utah, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Texas, and Arizona.
Winning all those tier one states would secure the president 191 electoral votes. In all but three of them, his victory is all but assured. In Texas, Arizona, and Georgia, however, the Democrats are competing and attempting to flip them, but signs in each of those three states of a Trump resurgence have emerged as of late. Most recent polling in Georgia suggests the president has recovered there and is not at risk of losing to Democrat candidate former Vice President Joe Biden, as is the case in Texas. Arizona is a bit tighter, but the most recent ABC News-Washington Post poll had Trump up by 1 percent inside the poll’s margin of error.
Tier two, Trump allies believe, is a pair of states worth another 24 electoral votes combined: Iowa and Ohio. Recent polling in both places, save a couple outliers, has Trump up over Biden in each. Putting tiers one and two together would give Trump 215 electoral votes.
The third tier is another pair of states the president won in 2016, worth a combined 44 more electoral votes: North Carolina and Florida. The president has in the most recent ABC-WaPo poll in Florida taken a 4 percent lead over Biden in the Sunshine State, and in North Carolina has been consistently leading in most polls. Combining tiers one through three would get Trump much closer to 270 and a second term as it would put him at 259 electoral votes in total.
From there, tier four offers Trump any number of pathways across the finish line and back into the White House. A win in Pennsylvania, which has 20 electoral votes, would get him there. So would a win in Michigan, which has 16 electoral votes. Trump could also cobble together a combination of Wisconsin, which has ten electoral votes, plus Maine’s Second Congressional District, which has one electoral vote. He could do the same with Minnesota, which also has ten electoral votes, plus Wisconsin or Maine’s Second District to get over 270. Other states in the fourth tier include Nevada with six electoral votes, New Hampshire with four electoral votes, New Mexico with five electoral votes, Colorado with nine electoral votes, and Virginia with 13 electoral votes.
CONFIDENCE BUILDS IN TRUMPWORLD
The Trump team—both official campaign staff and outside allies—believe in this pathway to victory and think the president is in much better shape than the establishment media would give him credit for as of now.
“In all the battlegrounds President Trump needs to win, he’s either leading or within the margin of error,” senior adviser to the Trump campaign Jason Miller said in an early September radio appearance on Breitbart News Saturday on SiriusXM 125 the Patriot Channel. “So I think that’s an important distinction. Don’t worry about the fake polls you see out there, the sample 25 percent Republicans that make you think there aren’t any Republicans left in the country anymore. President Trump is in a great position.”
LISTEN TO JASON MILLER ON BREITBART NEWS SATURDAY:
Miller added that the core states Trump won in 2016 are swinging back his way, and holding that core together—tiers one through three as laid out above—is key to the Trump campaign expanding the map beyond what the president won in 2016 in November’s election.
“For all the talk of Joe Biden being on offense and trying to win states that President Trump won last go around, as long as we’re able to hang on to Arizona, Florida, North Carolina—three states that are always tough but we feel very good about where we are at and we believe we are leading in all three of those—as long as we are able to hold onto those states that means Joe Biden has to shut out President Trump in all four of those northern states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin which President Trump won all three last time and then Minnesota,” Miller said in the Sept. 5 radio appearance. “So here’s the key: Literally, Joe Biden has to go four-for-four in those states. If President Trump wins just one of them and he hangs onto the other states, then he’s in. So we have four different serious pathways to victory and this is what has Joe Biden freaking out and in particular he’s moving up his TV buys by a week in Minnesota and he’s visiting Minnesota next week. The key thing about Minnesota is a Republican hasn’t won there since 1972. Think about that, a Republican hasn’t won there 1972 and President Trump came within a point and a half back in 2016. Now we’re all in. We’re spending money, we’re up on TV ads there, we have staff on the ground. We’re going to win it.”
Miller is hardly the only Trump ally bullish on the president’s electoral college chances.
“This guy is built to win presidential elections,” Sam Nunberg, a former Trump campaign adviser from the 2016 campaign, said in a Breitbart News Saturday appearance this weekend. “Why? Two major states: Ohio and Florida. If you win Ohio and Florida as a presidential candidate, it’s practically impossible for you to lose the presidency. If you win Florida, that means in the sunbelt you’re going to win Arizona and North Carolina. Here’s what it means. Here are some statistics I have for you. Since 1860, the winner of Florida has won the presidential election 27 out of 39 times. The winner of Ohio has won the election 35 out of 39 times. Look at where we are right now in Iowa. Iowa is very indicative of Ohio. And look where we are across Florida basically. Florida itself you can see within the polling in the different regions in Florida. In Iowa, Iowa is essentially a larger Ohio but in Ohio you have Cleveland and you have Cincinnati. Look at it like that. The Biden campaign is not competing there [in Iowa] anymore. It’s over. Even public Democrat-leaning pollsters, they have Trump up by 5. They have him at 50 percent.”
LISTEN TO SAM NUNBERG ON BREITBART NEWS SATURDAY:
Nunberg is correct that Trump has taken a commanding lead in Iowa, as the most recent survey from Monmouth University has the president up 6 percent there—a lead outside the poll’s margin of error.
So in other words in this four-tiered strategy the question is whether Trump can lock in his red states—he seems well on his way to doing that—and then secure his anchors in Ohio and Florida, with Iowa and North Carolina on top of each of those respectively. If he does that, he can finish Biden off in the rust belt just like he did to Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2016—or he could look out west or to the northeast in New Hampshire and Maine’s Second District.
“The president got 306 electoral votes last time,” Nunberg said. “That’s with winning all of the south except Virginia. That’s with winning Wisconsin, Michigan, and obviously Pennsylvania. I believe had the Access Hollywood tape not been leaked out by NBC Universal that the president could have won Colorado. I don’t know if he can win it this time, but he could have won Colorado [last time]. And Nevada was only 20,000 votes actually.”
POLLS AND DATA SHOW TRUMP SURGE IN TIER ONE
Shifting back to the actual multi-tiered electoral college breakdown, Trump’s allies are not mistaken to have their hopes rising ahead of the first debate on Tuesday night.
In tier one, with the exception of Georgia, Arizona, and Texas, the president seems to have all those states locked down without question—though Democrats do also intend to compete in part of Nebraska which like Maine splits its electoral votes by congressional district.
Recent polling out of each of these places, though, suggests Trump is well on his way to locking them down. Starting with Georgia, Trump has retaken the lead after a rough patch in the late spring and early summer according to the RealClearPolitics average there. Trump, in the average of polls, now leads Biden in Georgia by over a percent—and has not trailed Biden in a Georgia poll since well before the two conventions. The last poll that had Biden leading in Georgia was back in the first week of August, and Trump has led or is tied in every poll since. Polling out Tuesday from Georgia shows Trump’s lead solidifying:
Texas has seen an even more profound shift back Trump’s way. After some early-in-the-year concerns among Republicans, Trump has led every single poll since July according to the RealClearPolitics average and now on average leads Biden by nearly 4 percent in the Lone Star State. Another poll out on Tuesday shows Trump’s Texas lead holding up:
Arizona gets a little more tricky for the president. One recent poll, according to RealClearPolitics, is the ABC News-Washington Post survey released last week showing Trump up 1 percent. But a spate of other recent polls there have shown Biden with slim leads, and Biden currently has a 3.4 percent lead in Arizona per the RealClearPolitics average. But Trump allies do believe Arizona is coming back around the president’s way, as it is a traditional red state, and the Supreme Court confirmation fight for the president’s pick to succeed the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg—Judge Amy Coney Barrett—will energize the base in Arizona and help the president surge across the finish line there. As proof, a new poll out in Arizona released on Tuesday just before the debate shows Trump has tied Biden there:
The Senate race in Arizona between appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) and Democrat Mark Kelly, in which polling has had the Democrat Kelly way ahead of McSally, also potentially complicates matters but McSally has tracked back with the president in the most recent surveys and Republicans are optimistic Arizona will swing back their way. That being said, Biden has not given up yet on the state: This past week, he rolled out an endorsement from the widow of the late Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)—who Biden, as former President Barack Obama’s vice president, ran against in the 2008 presidential election. Cindy McCain also joined Biden’s transition team after she endorsed him.
In Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, there has been only one poll publicly released according to the RealClearPolitics aggregation of polling—and it shows Biden with a reasonable lead. That poll is from the New York Times and Siena College, and Republicans are not as of yet very worried about Nebraska’s Second District flipping Biden’s way but they are keeping an eye on it as they work the bigger national map. But the one survey is worth mentioning because if Biden were able to break in here, Trump may have to make up for it elsewhere.
TIER TWO SWINGS TRUMP’S WAY TOO
In the second tier, Iowa as mentioned above has shifted significantly into Trump’s corner with Monmouth giving him a six-point advantage. Biden and his running Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) as of now do not have much planned there, though he did conduct a virtual event trying to beam himself into the Hawkeye State to emphasize its importance.
With the exception of a Des Moines Registerpoll showing a mid-September tie between Trump and Biden in Iowa and a New York Timespoll showing a slim Biden lead in the state later in the month—both of which appear to be outliers—the last time Biden led a poll over Trump in Iowa according to the RealClearPolitics collection of the state’s surveys was way back in mid-March 2019. So the president has been leading in Iowa for more than 18 months straight, and despite these latest couple media polls suggesting a tightening race the Monmouth survey shows Trump up 6 percent with little chance for Biden to make up a difference there.
In the nearby Buckeye State, Trump has also led in many surveys—including some out this week:
It’s a bit of a tighter race there, with some public polls showing slight leads for Trump or for Biden by just a couple points one way or another. That being said, flashback to 2016 when the public polling average had by the end of the race Trump leading Clinton by just an average aggregate of 2.2 percent—and he beat the polling average by nearly 6 percent, winning Ohio by 8.1 points over Clinton. So while some in the establishment media and polling industry consider Ohio a toss-up, it’s a pretty safe assumption based off the 2016 results and off the data pouring in from the ground that Trump is in good shape there as his allies inside and outside the campaign have made clear.
THIRD TIER STATES SLIDE TRUMP’S DIRECTION AS WELL
North Carolina looks much more solidly in Trump’s column than many other battleground states. Poll after poll after poll shows Trump leading the Tar Heel State, even by slim margins. North Carolina was a state that Obama and Biden won in 2008, but was the only battleground state Mitt Romney—then the former Massachusetts governor and GOP presidential nominee, now a U.S. senator from Utah—was able to move back into the Republican column in 2012. Trump won it in 2016, too, and appears poised to do so again in 2020. Even so, North Carolina is not in the bag yet, and Trump has work to do there to lock it in.
Polls out of North Carolina in recent weeks, though, have shown a shift Trump’s way. One out Tuesday for instance shows a tie:
Several other surveys showed Biden with a negligible lead inside the margin of error. Biden’s lead in the state’s average of surveys is down to 1.1 percent, and if 2016 is any indicator Trump beat his 0.2 percent RealClearPolitics polling average lead over Clinton by a full percent winning Florida by 1.2 percent that year.
In a 2018 midterm election year otherwise bad for the GOP, too, Republicans had a big year in the Sunshine State. Now-Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) defeated incumbent Democrat now former Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) to take the U.S. Senate seat, and Trump ally now-governor and former Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) won the governor’s race even more decisively than the GOP won the Senate seat.
TIER FOUR: THE FINISH LINE
So if Trump can hold all those above tiers in place—lock in Arizona after having shifted Texas and Georgia back the right way, hold his gains in Iowa and Ohio, while solidifying leads in Florida and North Carolina, he’s almost there as Miller and Nunberg among others have pointed out.
The picture in tier four states is looking better and better for Trump, too, as he has led or tied or had virtual ties in some polling signaling very close races in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania has also seen significant swings in voter registration numbers move in the president’s direction, with severallocalnewspapers quoting local Democrat officials sounding the alarm at the pace of shifts from Democrat to Republican among registered voters.
Earlier in July, the Citizens Voice newspaper detailed how Democrat voter registration advantages have been erased in the critical Lackawanna and Luzerne counties, which ironically contain Biden’s hometown of Scranton and other small cities like Wilkes-Barre and Hazleton.
“In the June 2 primary election, Democrats outnumbered Republicans in Lackawanna by 40,822, down from about 60,000 as recently as May 2009, four months after President Barack Obama took office, and about 48,000 at the 2016 presidential election,” the Citizens Voice’s Borys Krawczeniuk wrote. “In Lackawanna, Democrats traditionally have had more than double the number of registered Republican voters, a ratio that reached as high as five Democrats for every two Republicans as recently as May 2015. By the June 2 primary, the advantage eroded to fewer than four Democrats for every two Republicans — for the first time since at least May 1997.”
Later in the piece, Krawczeniuk continues by detailing a grimmer picture for Democrats in Luzerne County.
“The picture looks even bleaker for Democrats in Luzerne, where Trump walloped Clinton by 26,237 votes, or 19.4 percentage points, reversing Obama’s 2008 and 2012 victories there,” Krawczeniuk wrote. “Democrats outnumber Republicans by 24,728 voters, less than half the margin of the early Obama years. Republican voter registration is up to 38% of all voters while Democratic registration dropped to 49.7%, the first time below 50% since at least May 1997. From an advantage of 18 Democrats for every 10 Republicans in November 2010, the ratio is down to 13 to 10. In 2016, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by almost 34,000 voters. Overall, at the primary, the county had 80,226 Republicans, 104,954 Democrats and 26,101 voters registered in other parties or unaffiliated for a total of 211,281. Since Trump first appeared on local ballots in the April 2016 primary, the county added 11,623 Republicans while Democrats lost 533 voters.”
The picture is so bad for the left that local Democrats are sounding the alarm, telling the local newspapers that they think the national Democrats’ hard-left turn toward socialism is bad for the party.
“I talk to a lot of people who I know are lifelong Democrats and they’re like, ‘I’ve had it. This Democratic Party isn’t the party that my parents belonged to. The thing has gone, far left, progressive.’” Lackawanna County Democrat Party chairman Chris Patrick said, for instance. “Some people buy into that. I think what’s happening is a lot of longtime Democrats are more moderate, more maybe a tiny bit right-leaning conservative instead of this far-left liberalism.”
The Philadelphia Inquirer, when Vice President Mike Pence and Biden faced off in the Keystone State in the summer, followed up with its own detailed breakdown of Pennsylvania concerns for Democrats in more than just Lackawanna and Luzerne Counties but here in the Philadelphia area as well.
In the piece, local Democrat operative Dan Lodise is quoted as saying “enough” people do not “talk about” Trump flipping many Democrat votes the GOP’s way in the region.
“You see a lot of 25- to 65-year-old white working-class men who shifted,” Lodise said. “They not only voted for Trump but have continued to vote for Republicans since.”
Lodise said that U.S. Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-PA) and Democrat Gov. Tom Wolf both lost support, about 6 percent apiece, in their reelections in 2018 as compared with previous elections—something he attributes to Trump peeling off Democrats and creating new Republicans in the Philadelphia area.
“I’ve been doing this work in this community for 16 years,” the Democrat Lodise said. “I’m legitimately concerned.”
This is why Pence, Trump’s vice president, appeared at a “Back The Blue” rally at the Fraternal Order of Police lodge in northern Philadelphia, the Inquirer noted. Breitbart News accompanied Pence on the trip and interviewed him during it.
Since then, now the local union of firefighters and EMTs in Philadelphia has bucked its national counterpart’s endorsement of Biden and issued a full-throated endorsement of Trump:
The Philadelphia Firefighters and Paramedics Union announced today it is breaking with the International Association of Fire Fighters, one of Joe Biden’s biggest allies, and endorsing President Trump. Local 22 said IAFF leaders “lost touch with the will of the membership.” pic.twitter.com/qOmHfoJ3Iu
If it’s any indication where the race is going after the first debate on Tuesday night, Biden is campaigning in Pennsylvania—yet another trip after many others he’s made to the Keystone State—on Wednesday for a train tour out west in the state. Trump, meanwhile, will rally supporters in Minnesota.
In Maine’s Second District, Trump has led a number of surveys as well:
Trump made a campaign swing through Nevada a couple weeks ago, holding rallies in the Las Vegas and Reno areas in a push to try to flip the state.
Trump is even doing better than expected in Virginia where Republicans have been sliding for many years and haven’t won at the top of the ticket in more than a decade. One recent poll had Trump back just 5 percent, enough to get Trump to hold a last-second rally in Newport News in an effort to gin up more support in the Old Dominion.
Colorado, with a competitive Senate race looking tough for incumbent Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO) who’s facing off against former Democrat Gov. John Hickenlooper, seems like more of an uphill battle but some polling has shown the president trailing by just single digits there. If the rest of the race shifts his way in rust belt states in the next couple weeks, look for Trump to move out west and push for Colorado and maybe even a New Mexico.
New Mexico GOP chairman Steve Pearce insists the president can and will win his state, as Democrat policies on things like the coronavirus lockdowns and law and order are boomeranging back on them with the public disapproving of their vision for the country.
President Donald Trump mocked his rival former Vice President Joe Biden for hosting zero public events on Thursday.
“Sleepy Joe Biden just closed down his campaign for the day (Again),” Trump wrote on Twitter. “Wants to rest!”
The Biden campaign called a “lid” for reporters awaiting any activity from the campaign on Thursday, as the former Vice President is expected to focus on preparation for the debate.
Trump mocked Biden for his lack of energy on the campaign trail.
“He is a very LOW ENERGY INDIVIDUAL, and our Country cannot make it in these exciting, but complex and competitive times, with a Low Energy President!!!” he wrote.
Sleepy Joe Biden just closed down his campaign for the day (Again). Wants to rest! He is a very LOW ENERGY INDIVIDUAL, and our Country cannot make it in these exciting, but complex and competitive times, with a Low Energy President !!!
Trump is revisiting the insult that he used against former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) during the 2016 Republican presidential primary.
“I used to call Jeb Bush, low energy. But I mean, if you compare the two, Jeb is extraordinarily energetic compared to Sleepy Joe,” Trump said in an interview with Fox Sports host Clay Travis last week.
Trump is planning two events on Thursday: A trip to North Carolina to talk about health care and a trip to Jacksonville, Florida, for an airport rally with supporters.
Biden has skipped public events nine out of 24 days in September.
This is every day so far in the month of September that the Biden Campaign has called a full lid before Noon pic.twitter.com/dqdJlqdjMc
President Donald Trump will hold a Saturday evening rally in Fayetteville, North Carolina.
Stay tuned to Breitbart News for live updates.
All times Eastern.
7:55 PM: Trump now mocks Bloomberg for trying to buy his way back into the Democratic Party. Trump says he had the dumbest advisers. He says Bloomberg could have won the nomination if he had just spent money on ads instead of debating.
7:54 PM: Trump says Biden probably doesn’t even know what “xenophobic” means before saying don’t underestimate him.
Trump says they are going to give him a “shot in the ass” so he can have great debate performances. Trump says he is going to ask for a drug test after the debate.
7:53 PM: Trump says we have learned a lot through pioneering therapies and put in rapid testing in nursing homes. Trump says his bold and early actions saved millions of lives and his decisive economic response saved tens of millions of jobs, including 1.3 million in North Carolina.
7:52 PM: Trump says he doesn’t know what’s going on at Fox News but he says the biggest difference between 2020 and 2016 is “Fox,” which he says has “changed a lot.”
7:47 PM: Trump going on about being nominated for the Nobel Prize. Trump says he told the First Lady to turn on the television because this is going to be big. Trump says he sees coverage of the storm. He says there were six other stories. Then he looked at the screen and it was good night. Trump says he got the nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize and “they didn’t cover it.” He says the next night there were 18 minutes of coverage of stories that were “absolutely nothing” and there was “zero coverage” of his getting nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Trump says he turns on his television by using “petro” and not “wind.”
Trump says the media are “scoundrels” that are the “enemy of the people” after saying we need an honest media to report on his Nobel Peace Prize nomination.
7:41 PM: Trump says he would give himself an A+ on responding to the coronavirus but a D grade on something before saying how Democrats are trying to criticize his response for “political reasons.”
Trump congratulates the media for now having a lower approval rating than Congress.
7:36 PM: Trump says 6.6 million people have been lifted out of poverty in his first term, the largest ever on record. Trump says we are building the greatest economy in the world and talks up the “super V” recovery.
Trump says we will end the plague from China and develop a vaccine. He says next year will be the greatest economy on record.
7:33 PM: Trump says the rallies where he wings it like last night are the best. After mimicking how Rush Limbaugh says “Barack Hussein Obama,” Obama says Rush watches every rally and talks about Rush supported him in 2016 because Trump was making sense on trade.
Trump talks about giving Rush the Presidential Medal of Freedom. He says Rush has been “so unbelievable” and has been on our side since day one. Trump now talks about Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham, and Lou Dobbs.
7:29 PM: Trump says Biden was the dumbest Senator decades ago and says he is the worst candidate in the history of presidential politics. Trump says he doesn’t know what he’d do if he loses to Biden. “I’ll never speak to you again,” Trump says.
7:27 PM: Trump says he hasn’t chosen yet but there are numerous women on his incredible list. He says Biden should release his list of justices.
7:25 PM: Back to the free poll again. Trump asks if they would rather have a woman on the Supreme Court or a man? More cheers for “woman.” Trump polls the audience again and more cheers for “woman.”
“This is a free poll… This is a lot of people.”
WATCH: President Trump conducts a “poll” on a potential Supreme Court pick at his rally in Fayetteville, NC. pic.twitter.com/29O5DK61ip
Trump says the fake news will say he was “playing games” with the nomination. Trump says this is a “very accurate poll” because that’s the way he feels. Trump says it will be a woman, a “very talented, very brilliant woman.”
7:22 PM: Now we’re back to the free poll. Trump says he thinks it should be a woman because he likes women much more.
Now he asks: “where’s Hunter?”…. He says he “took the money and ran” from places like China. He keeps going off on Hunter and Ukraine. Trump asks: “How the hell did this happen?” He says he thinks it will be brought up in the debates. Trump says Hunter is probably in the Riviera having a great time while taking “night classes” on energy.
7:20 PM: Trump now talks about securing borders and rebuilding America’s military with weapons the likes of which this world has never seen before. Trump insists he is not giving away confidential information. Trump says he is just saying that the leader of China, Russia, and North Korea are “so envious” of America’s weapons, all made in the USA.
7:13 PM: Trump says the president and those in the Senate majority have a “moral duty” to fulfill their obligations to the voters by filling the Supreme Court seat.
Trump says the nominee will be a woman unless…now he thinks about polling the crowd.
Trump says he loves these free polls because most of the pollsters are corrupt. Trump says if we believed in pollsters we wouldn’t be here right now.
Trump now talks about how Mark Meadows had a beautiful head of black hair and now it’s turning white.
Trump now talking about having the Tik Tok deal worked out with Walmart and Oracle’s Larry Ellison. Trump says he asked them to put $5 billion for an education fund to teach the “real history” of the country.
7:10 PM: Trump says the Supreme Court was a central issue in 2016 and even in the 2018 midterm elections. He says Democrats are worried that his supporters are more excited than they were four years ago.
Trump says North Carolina should end its shutdown and he says, like in Michigan and Pennsylvania, it’s all political.
7:08 PM: Trump says there has been 29 times when there was a vacancy during an election year or prior to inauguration and every single time the sitting president made a nomination. Trump says nobody said “let’s not fill that seat.”
7:07 PM: Trump now says Article II of the Constitution says the president shall nominate justices of the Supreme Court.
Crowd chants: “Fill that seat!”
“And that’s what we’re going to do,” Trump says. “Fill that seat.”
7:05 PM: Trump says we need to save our country from the “radical-left crazies.” Trump says the nation mourns the loss of a “legal giant” Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Trump talks about her “courageous battle with cancer.” Trump says she was an “inspiration” to a “tremendous” number of people and “all Americans” whether you agreed with her. Trump says his thoughts and prayers are with her family.
Trump says Ginsburg’s friendship with the late Antonin Scalia is a reminder that we can disagree on issues and treat each other with dignity and respect.
7:02 PM: Trump ready to address excited supporters. Crowd chants “USA!” as Trump heads to the podium.
6:50 PM: Air Force One wheels down in North Carolina.
6:35 PM: Trump expected to arrive shortly. Republican candidates making the Supreme Court a big campaign issue to energize the base.
President Donald Trump is scheduled to arrive imminently for his Fayetteville, NC rally. Queen’s “Bohemian Rhapsody” is playing so loud over the speakers the press riser is vibrating from the bass. pic.twitter.com/mR1fDN35aD
Pres says a woman tops his list for a Supreme Court nominee. Told reporters he thinks he’ll “most likely” nominate a woman. Thinks he’ll announce his nominee next week. Says his list of nominees is “the greatest list ever assembled.” pic.twitter.com/JpiMcQsG3l
Pres Trump says he’ll have a nominee soon to fill the Ginsburg vacancy on the Supreme Court. Speaking to reporters before departing for campaign rally in NC, he says he agrees with McConnell about bringing a nomination to the Senate floor.
President Donald Trump on Tuesday continued campaigning against the violent radical left rioters in America’s major cities, describing them as “domestic terrorists.”
“Biden’s plan is to appease the domestic terrorists. My plan is to arrest them,” Trump said as the crowd cheered.
Trump accused former Vice President Joe Biden of ignoring the violence, looting, and arson conducted by Black Lives Matter supporters and Antifa throughout the summer.
“Joe Biden and his party spent the entire summer cheering on the rioters rampaging through Democrat-led cities, falsely labeling them as peaceful protesters,” Trump said.
Trump said that the leaders of Democrat-led cities faced a skyrocketing rise in crime as the riots continued.
The president said that America’s liberal elites and the violent leftist elements had joined forces.
“The globalists and the leftists make natural partners because they are united by their contempt for the American middle class,” Trump said. “That’s why powerful corporations and far-left politicians have both sided with radical demonstrators.”
He reminded his supporters that his reelection had been backed by many police organizations around the country.
“Do what you want: vote for the candidate backed by violent left-wing rioters if you have to or do what you want to vote for the candidate backed by the selfless heroes of law enforcement,” Trump said.
The president also ridiculed Biden for “talking a little bit tougher” about the rioters and protesters, accusing him of doing it for political reasons after his polling numbers declined.
But Trump predicted that Biden would never use the phrase “law and order” on the campaign trail.
“He’ll never get to say that. Can’t say that, because then he’d lose the whole left,” Trump said. “And let me tell you, the left is running that party. You don’t want to be dealing with the left. These people are stone cold crazy.”
Trump referred to videos on social media of “screaming far left maniacs shouting wildly at peaceful Americans” during the ongoing protests and riots throughout the Summer.
“These are Biden supporters, and if he wins, they will be in charge of your government, as sure as you’re sitting there,” he said.
President Donald Trump on Tuesday said that it would be an insult to America if Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) was the first woman president.
“People don’t like her. Nobody likes her. She could never be the first woman president,” Trump said of Kamala Harris. “She could never be. That would be an insult to our country.”
The president spoke about Biden and Harris during a campaign rally in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, on Tuesday evening.
Trump appeared puzzled that former Vice President Joe Biden selected Harris as his running mate but said that he was past his prime.
“He’s half-competent and he’s heading south rapidly,” he said. Trump said that Harris was more radical left than Democrat socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders.
“You know who is further left than Crazy Bernie?” he asked. “Kamala. Kamala. Kamala.”
“Biden has now formed an unholy alliance with the most extreme and dangerous element of the radical left,” he continued. “You know that.”
Trump mocked the California senator’s poll numbers in the Democrat presidential primary where she started at 15 percent and then fell to low single-digits. He also noted that Harris exited the race before the primary elections even started.
“Sort of interesting that they picked her,” Trump mused. “Because in theory, they should be able to run in California.”