Poll shows NZ Labour is in an election-losing position

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Support for Jacinda Ardern’s government is up slightly, but Labour would still lose if an election were held tomorrow, a new poll shows.

The TVNZ/Kantar poll published Tuesday had the National Party polling at 37% meaning it could form a government with the ACT Party which had 9% support.

Labour support was at 34%, up one point from the last survey in August. The Green Party was steady on 9% while the Māori Party was polling at just 2%.

Polling analysts, replicating the results into parliamentary seats, forecast the National Party winning government with a one-seat majority, taking office with likely coalition partner ACT.

The TVNZ/Kantar poll was run after a troubled few weeks for both major parties. Labour expelled backbench MP Dr Gaurav Sharma after he made bully accusations, and the National Party stood down and then reinstated Sam Uffindell after investigating claims about his behaviour as a student at the University of Otago.

The poll showed Ardern’s preferred prime minister ranking remained at 30% while personal support for National Party leader Christopher Luxon had dropped a percentage point to 21%.

ACT leader David Seymour polled 4% while NZ First leader and former deputy prime minister Winston Peters was preferred by 2% of respondents. The poll also asked if New Zealand should become a republic.

Exactly half the respondents said “no”, while 27% said “yes” and 23% were “undecided”.

The Prime Minister has said a republic was not on her Government’s agenda. Luxon ruled out making the change if he was elected as PM.

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