Is NATO Falling Apart?

Is NATO Falling Apart?


Is NATO falling apart?

Something quite amazing has just happened.

Following the terrorist attack in Ankara which killed 34 people and injured another 125, Turkish authorities first declared that they will not accept US condolences.  Then the Turks launched a military operation against “Kurdish terrorists in northern Syria.  Turkey then claimed to have neutralized 184 terrorists.

What is not mentioned in those articles is that the target of the Turkish strike was the US-run center for the training and education of PKK militants in Rojava.  There are rumors that the Turks gave the US enough warning time to evacuate most of its personnel.

Does that sound familiar?

If it does, it is because it is very similar to what the Iranians did when they hit US bases in Iraq following the murder of General Solemani in a US drone strike.

If the above is true, and rumors are very much “if” and cannot be considered as proven fact, then that means that a NATO member state (Turkey) just attacked a US base and, like Iran, got away with it: the “The Finest Fighting Force in the History of the World” just got whacked hard and humiliated for a second time and could do absolutely nothing to defend itself or even save face.

How big a slap in the face did Uncle Shmuel get this time?  According to the Turkish defense minister, Hulusi Akar,

Terrorists’ shelters, bunkers, caves, tunnels, and warehouses were successfully destroyed,” Akar said, adding that “the so-called headquarters of the terrorist organization were also hit and destroyed.” Overall, the Defense Ministry claimed that the strikes hit nearly 90 targets, which it said were connected to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Kurdish People’s Defense Units (YPG).

Even allowing for some “patriotic exaggeration”, it is pretty clear that Ergodan’s revenge strike was both quite substantial and, apparently, rather effective.

So, what do we have here? A NATO member state all but accused the US of a major terrorist attack against its capital city, and then that NATO member state openly attacked a US-run facility (let’s not call it a base, that would be inaccurate).

Is Erdogan’s claim even credible?  Absolutely!  Not only has the US already attempted to overthrow and kill Erdogan (ER: Back in July, 2016), who was saved in extremis by Russian special forces (same with Ianukovich, Ukraine), but we also know that the US overthrew General de Gaulle in 1968-1969 and that NATO covert forces were used to stage false flag attacks against NATO allies (especially Italy) in the so-called GLADIO operation.

NATO is not a defensive alliance – it never was –  but it is a tool of US colonial domination.

This was always true, hence the famous words spoken  in the now faraway 1950s when the first NATO Secretary General, British General Hasting Ismay, bluntly admitted that real the purpose of NATO was to keep the “Russians out, Americans in, Germans down“.  Let’s take these elements one by one, starting with the last one:

  • “Keep the Germans down”: here the word “Germans” is a placeholder for any and all European leaders or countries who want true sovereignty and agency.  Translation: enslave the Europeans
  • “Keep the Americans in”: in order to crush any European liberation movement. Translation: place US overlords over all the EU nations.
  • “Keep the Russians out”: make sure that Russia does not liberate Europe.  Translation: demonize Russia and do anything and everything to prevent peace on the European continent.  If possible, break-up, subjugate or otherwise destroy Russia.

Need proof?  How about the undeniable act of war against Germany (and, I would argue, the entire EU) when the Anglos blew up NS1/NS2 (Nord Stream)?  Is that not proof enough?

Against that background, we have to ask yourselves: what does it even mean to be a NATO member state in 2022?

The truth is that NATO was a pure creation of the Cold War and that in the real world of 2022, it is a total anachronism.  Being a NATO member state really means very little.  Not only are some “more equal than others” in NATO, but there are also non-NATO states which are far more “NATOized” than actual NATO members states (I think of Israel or, of course, the Nazi-occupied Ukraine).  And being a member of NATO does not protect you from anything, not from external attacks and not against internal ones either.

According to Col (Ret) MacGregor, the war in the Ukraine might well bring about the collapse of both NATO and the EU. I very much agree with him. I would say that such a collapse will not so much be the result of embarrassing defeats as it will be due to the deep internal contradictions inside both organizations.

By the way, this is not our topic today, but I think that the CSTO (ER: Collective Security Treaty Organization, a collection of six post-Soviet states – Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan & Kyrzgystan) has much of the same problems and contradictions as NATO.  So is what we observe a “NATO problem” or a problem of artificial and generally obsolete alliances?  I would argue for the latter.

But let’s leave a discussion of the CSTO for another day.

In the case of Turkey this problem is made even worse by a total incompatibility between Islam and the Woke ideology now openly promoted (and enforced) by the US and NATO.

Then there is geography.  Turkey has some pretty powerful regional neighbors, including not only Greece or Israel, but also Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Syria and, course, Russia.  Can Turkey count on any type of US/NATO “protection” from such powerful neighbors?

Ask the Saudis how much the US/NATO helped them against the Houthis!

Ask the Israelis how much the US/NATO helped them against Hezbollah?

If anything, the Iranian strikes on CENTCOM bases have demonstrated that the US does not have the stomach to take on Iran.  In sharp contrast, the Russian and Iranian intervention in Syria defeated the US plans for a “New Middle East” or, shall we say, it did bring about a “new Middle-East”, but most definitely not the one the US Neocons were hoping for! (ER: The Oded Yinon plan?)

Add to this the major deterioration in the relationship between the US and MBS’ Saudi Arabia and we get an amazing picture: the USA and NATO (which the US dragged into the region) are gradually becoming irrelevant in the Middle-East.  Instead, new “big actors” are gradually filling the void, including Russia and Iran who are now even gradually allowing Saudi Arabia to participate in a much needed regional dialog about the future of the region.

The phenomenal weakness of the US/NATO/CENTCOM is best illustrated by the US reaction to the Turkish strikes: Uncle Shmuel endorsed (no kidding!!!) the Turkish strikes 🙂

How absolutely pathetic is that for a wannabe superpower?

Will this process have an impact on the NATO war against Russia?

Well, let’s imagine that Russia would really strike some target inside Poland (which is what the Ukies claimed, as did the Poles until Uncle Shmuel told them to cool it).  What would happen next?

Does anybody still remember what happened when Erdogan flew to Mons to beg for NATO protection against Russia (following the downing of a Russian Su-24 over northern Syria by a joint US-Turkish operation, possibly executed without Erdogan’s knowledge, at least that was his claim).  What did NATO promise or give the Turks?  Absolutely *nothing* (other than “consultations”).

Now the Poles might be delusional enough to think that a US President might order a retaliatory attack on Russia if Russia strikes Poland, but those of us who know the USA and its ruling elites know that this is nonsense.  Why?  Simply because a US/NATO counter-strike on Russian forces would result in an immediate Russian response.

And then what?

The truth is very stark in its simplicity:

  • The US/NATO do not have the manpower or firepower needed to take on Russia in a conventional combined arms war.
  • Any use of nuclear weapons will result in an immediate retaliation most likely resulting into a unwinnable full-scale nuclear war.

So here is the deal: whether western politicians understand that or not, military professionals all know the truth – NATO can’t defend ANY of its members against a truly modern military. Why?

Let’s look at what capabilities the US/NATO truly have:

  • The USN has a superb submarine force (both SSNs and SSBNs) capable of firing large numbers of relatively obsolete cruise missiles (and plenty of SLBMs)
  • A still very capable, if rather old, nuclear triad
  • A quantitative (only!) conventional advantage over Russia
  • Superb (but very vulnerable!) C4ISR capabilities
  • A printing press allowing for the quasi infinite printing of dollars
  • comprador elite ruling over all the NATO/EU countries
  • The most formidable propaganda machine in history

So what does NATO lack to be a credible military force?

Obviously, “boots on the ground”. And I don’t mean a few subunits from the 101st or 82AB or US special forces or even a so-called “armored brigade” which, in reality, lacks adequate TO&E to qualify as such.  I am talking about a “land warfare” force capable of fighting a modern and extremely determined enemy.

[Sidebar: if this is a topic of interest to you, may I recommend my article “Debunking popular clichés about modern warfare” written in 2016 but which is still mostly relevant]

The USA, Israel and the KSA all fell into the same trap: the delusion that spending billions and billions of dollars on massively over-priced and massively under-performing military hardware will allow you to defeat an enemy assumed to be “less sophisticated”.  Hence the need to use:

  • Proxy forces
  • PMCs
  • PSYOPS
  • Corruption

All of the above are a normal part of any modern war, but in the case of the US/NATO they are not just part of a bigger plan, they are central to any US/NATO operation, thereby dramatically decreasing the true capabilities of the US/NATO.  In sharp contrast, countries like Russia or Iran can deploy “boots on the ground”, and very capable ones at that (remember that the Iranians are those who trained Hezbollah!).

What does all this mean practically?

It means that even if the Russians decided to strike at a NATO country, the tensions would go through the roof, but it is highly UN-likely that any US President would allow any action which could result in a full-scale nuclear war!  Remember, for Russia, this is an existential war, no less than WWII, whereas no Anglo leader would ever dare launch a suicidal attack on Russian forces which would most likely result in the full obliteration of the US/UK and any other country participating (for example by hosting forward deployed standoff weapons) in such an attack.

Does that mean that we have to anticipate a Russian strike on Poland, Romania or the UK?

No, not at all.  In fact, it would be very dangerous for the Russians to only leave a stark choice to the Hegemony: admit defeat or commit suicide.  And since the Russians do have escalation dominance (that is to say that they have balanced capabilities from the small-arms fire level to a full intercontinental nuclear war, and with all the stages in between these two extremes) they, unlike the US/NATO. are not stuck between the choice of surrender or suicide.

That being said, it would also be misguided to assume that Russia “would never dare strike a NATO member state”.  The Poles might be willing to wager their future and even existence on such an invalid inference, but not the folks at the Pentagon or elsewhere in the decision centers of the Hegemony.

Conclusion

Douglas MacGregor is right, the NATO war against Russia might very well result in the collapse of both NATO and the EU which, in turn, will place an official “last nail” into the coffin of an already long-deceased Hegemony, which currently still exists only because of its momentum and its propaganda machine.

I would argue that NATO is already falling apart before our eyes, a process which the economic, social, political, economic and spiritual crises which are plaguing the entire EU will only accelerate. And, of course, the most amazing thing about this is that this collapse is not the result of some Machiavellian plan cooked up by the Russians, the Chinese or the Iranian, but a direct consequence of decades of truly suicidal policies: they did it to themselves!

Now, the Russians, the Chinese and the Iranians are mostly waiting, watching (probably smiling) and planning for the Hegemony-free multi-polar world they want to bring about, with or without the participation of the USA and Europe.

Andrei

************

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The Liberty Beacon Project is now expanding at a near exponential rate, and for this we are grateful and excited! But we must also be practical. For 7 years we have not asked for any donations, and have built this project with our own funds as we grew. We are now experiencing ever increasing growing pains due to the large number of websites and projects we represent. So we have just installed donation buttons on our websites and ask that you consider this when you visit them. Nothing is too small. We thank you for all your support and your considerations … (TLB)

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The West Has Now Set a Course on Total Terrorist Warfare

The West Has Now Set a Course on Total Terrorist Warfare


ER Editor: We published this yesterday with a couple of tweeted videos showing larger weaponry likely involved in the attempted take-down of the Kerch Strait bridge. None of which diminishes The Saker’s point, on the contrary. See

Ukraine SitRep – Recent Incidents Of Concern For All Sides

We still have a hunch we’re watching a movie. Nord Stream wasn’t irrevocably damaged, neither was the Kerch Strait bridge. Who has those directed energy weapons to pull this off?

********

West has now set a course on total terrorist warfare

First, I want to post a video I found on Twitter (original here) which shows what kind of explosion took place on the Crimean bridge.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1aQ1mIwgNE

From what I have read, a truck filled with explosives blew up, killing three people in a car nearby, and then the flames took over a train also crossing the bridge.  That train was full of fuel.  It is only thanks to the amazing speed at which the bridge crews reacted that the damage was limited to only 9 wagons and, therefore, to a much shorter segment of the rail tracks.

Looking at the video, one would imagine that the bridge is in ruins.  In fact, traffic was reestablished on both rail tracks and the road in less than 24 hours (with the exception of heavy trucks).  In other words, this is yet another case of “it is humiliating, but not dangerous” (обидно но не опасно).

But that is an increasingly mistaken notion: this time is also VERY dangerous.

  • It is self-evident that the Kiev regime would never have had the means, technical and political, to execute such an attack without being told to do so by its masters in the West.
  • Such an attack, right on the heels of the attacks on of NS1/NS2 shows beyond any doubt that West has now set a course on total terrorist warfare.
  • This makes sense, since for all the so-called “victories” of the NATO forces in the Ukraine, the reality is that they reconquered a few villages and towns while Russia liberated and then incorporated entire regions.
  • And Russia did that while always being at a numerical disadvantage
  • And while inflicting 10:1 KIA ratios.
  • In other words, the West’s “redirection” towards terrorism is an admission of military, economic and political defeat.

While this is hardly a surprise, the West *always* uses terrorism against sovereign governments, this is still a very negative development for Russia.

Simply put, there are always more targets than cops/guards.

Furthermore, terrorists can always chose the time and location of their attacks.

So far, the Ukronazi efforts in Russia yielded very little tangible benefits: the murder of Dugina made her into a martyr, the attack on NS1/NS2 (ER: Nord Stream) really only hurt Germany and the EU, while the explosion on Crimean Bridge has proven that this is a very hard target which will be extremely hard to destroy short of using a tactical nuke.

Here we all need to remember terrorist attacks on the school in Beslan, the Dubrovka Theater in Moscow, the Budennovsk hospital, the Domodedovo International Airport or the Saint Petersburg subway.  All of them were the result of actions by so-called “terrorist groups” all of which were (and still are) run by western special services.

There are basically only two ways to defeat such state-sponsored terrorist attacks:

  1. Infiltrate the so-called terrorist groups and infiltrate the western “parent agencies” which run them.
  2. Convince the general public to go into “high vigilance” mode.

Basically, the entire Russian society needs to go on a “mental war footing” and remain calm and very vigilant at the same time: not only is Russia under attack by Banderite Nazis, but also by the folks who did 9/11, MH17 (and many others!) and these are the folks who unleashed an entire terrorist campaign against Iran, which included bombing, assassinations, sabotage, etc.

Then there is the problem of escalation.  The attack on the Crimean Bridge was a clear act of war.

Of course, since no US passports were found conveniently floating in the water, Russia’s response should not be an overt military retaliatory attack.  However, I do expect that something will happen soon, most likely in the Ukraine, but probably involving western personnel / assets / facilities.

In conclusion, I expect things to get even worse right up and until the elections in the USA.  Not that I have much of a hope that sanity would prevail should the GOP win, but “a tiny little” is better than “none at all”.

In the meantime, it is simply shocking for me to observe the collective orgasm felt by the leaders of the West each time some horror befalls Russia.  Truth be told, the fact that they hate us does not surprise me.  What surprises me much more is how unapologetically hate-filled and “in your face” these cries of joy are.   And I wonder …

Do they see that hateful glee in their own eyes when they look in the mirror?  When they see a photo of Daria Dugina, do they feel like the “yeah! scored one against Putin!”?  When the kangaroo court in the Netherlands declares that it was Russia (or the LDNR) blew up MH17, will they feel that justice has been served and the guilty punished?

I am afraid that asking what they see or do not see is the wrong question which, by the way, Putin answered in his recent speech when he said these European elites understand everything – they do, but they prefer to serve the interests of others“.

It’s not that they don’t see, instead they don’t care.  At all.  They never have.

I will end with a question: is the above only true of the European ruling classes or is that true for most people who live in the EU?

What will the well-intentioned and noble Europeans do when the next bloodbath happens in Russia (because sooner or later it will, such is the nature of the terrorist threat)?  Will they rejoice and wave their Ukie flags a little stronger or will they just not give a damn?

The answer is obvious, especially to Russians.

Andrei

***********

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••••

The Liberty Beacon Project is now expanding at a near exponential rate, and for this we are grateful and excited! But we must also be practical. For 7 years we have not asked for any donations, and have built this project with our own funds as we grew. We are now experiencing ever increasing growing pains due to the large number of websites and projects we represent. So we have just installed donation buttons on our websites and ask that you consider this when you visit them. Nothing is too small. We thank you for all your support and your considerations … (TLB)

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Comment Policy: As a privately owned web site, we reserve the right to remove comments that contain spam, advertising, vulgarity, threats of violence, racism, or personal/abusive attacks on other users. This also applies to trolling, the use of more than one alias, or just intentional mischief. Enforcement of this policy is at the discretion of this websites administrators. Repeat offenders may be blocked or permanently banned without prior warning.

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Disclaimer: TLB websites contain copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available to our readers under the provisions of “fair use” in an effort to advance a better understanding of political, health, economic and social issues. The material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving it for research and educational purposes. If you wish to use copyrighted material for purposes other than “fair use” you must request permission from the copyright owner.

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Did Kiev Try to Capture IAEA Delegation to Make a Human Shield? IAEA Report a Predictable Disappointment

Did Kiev Try to Capture IAEA Delegation to Make a Human Shield? IAEA Report a Predictable Disappointment


ER Editor: So the IAEA delegation came and went from the Zaporozhyia nuclear power plant. Ukraine had already shelled the Russian-occupied plant, then sent in a considerable number of paratroopers to the plant as the UN inspection was due to get under way.

And what did the IAEA report say? See the second article below, where The Saker gives us his take on it. Clue: nothing burger.

See also this by Readovka: The final report of the IAEA mission never mentions shelling of the ZNPP by Ukrainian militants

And this from Moon of Alabama:

In other news the IAEA has published its report (pdf) on nuclear safeguards in Ukraine. As expected, the report does not say that the Ukraine army is shelling the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant (ZNPP), which the IAEA recently visited. It also does not say that Russia is shelling the plant (which it is not). The shells and the damage the IAEA has seen during its visit just somehow must have appeared from the sky.

It reports that the personnel on the site is working under nearly normal shift conditions and is not under pressure from Russia. The Ukraine had falsely claimed that the reactor crews were under duress.

This RT piece republished by 21st Century Wire does say that the report mentions the shelling of the plant, which must cease, but not who is doing it.

********

Kiev tried to capture IAEA Delegation to make human shield

Lucas Leiroz, researcher in Social Sciences at the Rural Federal University of Rio de Janeiro; geopolitical consultant.

LUCAS LEIROZ

Once again, reports indicate that the Kiev regime has acted in a destabilizing way in Zaporozhye. Local officials report that Ukrainian agents had recently attacked the region with the aim of capturing the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) team, which would allow them to keep international officials hostage in a human shield. This type of tactic is absolutely condemned according to international humanitarian standards, which reveals the criminal praxis of the Ukrainian forces.

In an interview to Russian media, Vladimir Rogov, a member of the top council of Zaporozhye’s civil-military administration, claimed that Ukrainian saboteurs had tried to hold IAEA officials hostage to gain an advantage in Kiev’s planned military “counteroffensive.” According to Rogov, the attacks in the region were strongly intensified during the inspection, and at least two dozen high-speed military boats with several armed soldiers on board were disembarked in the area of ​​the Kakhovka Reservoir. The reservoir is close to the nuclear plant, being a strategic position for the grouping of troops that would be mobilized for the operation in the facilities.

“In the event of a successful capture of the nuclear power plant, the goal of the Ukrainian saboteurs was to take hostage the IAEA delegation and the employees of the nuclear power plant in order to use them as a human shield to establish control over the nuclear power plant, which would allow blackmailing Russia and the whole world with a nuclear threat”, Rogov told media in a recent interview.

Earlier, the Russian Defense Ministry had already said that at least 60 Ukrainian paratroopers had taken part in an operation to occupy the ZNPP before the arrival of the delegation. Most of the soldiers were neutralized by Russian forces in the surrounding area of the Kakhovka reservoir, preventing the Ukrainian plan from materializing. Now, however, more recent information makes it clear that Kiev has continued to insist on its plan to seize the plant despite the presence of international inspectors, putting civilians’ lives unnecessarily in danger.

More serious than the mere attempt of irresponsible capture of the ZNPP, however, is the fact that there was possibly a plan to capture and hold as hostage innocent employees of an international inspection mission, whose purpose in the region is absolutely peaceful. The attempt to capture civilians in order to obtain military advantages through human shielding and intimidation is a real crime, which violates the most basic principles of international law. Although this was not the first attitude of this type on the part of Kiev, the case is especially serious as it shows how anti-Russian forces act in a destabilizing and anti-humanitarian way, targeting civilians.

As far as the IAEA’s work is concerned, the results of the inspection are yet to be announced. (ER: See report below) More likely, Rafael Grossi, director general of the IAEA, will publicly present a report in the third week of August [sic – ER: this is confusing as the date of this report is September 6]. In fact, there is still the possibility of starting a permanent mission, with part of the delegation remaining at the ZNPP for continuous inspection. There is great expectation on the part of both sides about what will be said by the Agency’s representatives, as the Western side fears that its narrative about Russian attacks in the region will be denied and, in the same sense, Moscow expects the delegation to act with sincerity and report what actually happened in the region during the inspection.

Rogov, for example, commented that IAEA agents simply cannot say they did not see Ukrainian bombings in the region, as it was quite clear that it was the Kiev side that attacked the plant many times during the inspection. The western side, however, puts pressure on IAEA agents to confirm their narrative, as the current program of military aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia would lose support from public opinion if it were revealed by the agency that Kiev has really attacked the plant. It remains to be seen what the official assessment will be and whether the report will be done in a truly neutral and apolitical manner. (ER: see below)

In any case, the data from the Russian authorities about the attempt to capture civilians to form a human shield cannot be ignored. Once again, Kiev appears to be the side responsible for serious and extremely dangerous crimes. Coercive measures against the Ukrainian regime are necessary, as the country seems willing to disobey all international norms. And, certainly, the first step to be taken is to stop the Western military support that allows Kiev to continue committing such crimes.

You can follow Lucas on Twitter.

Source

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The IAEA releases its “non-report” about the ZNPP

So the IAEA has released its so-called “report” which is a 52 page “nothing burger” and not something worthy of being called a “report”.  You can read the entire thing here: https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/22/09/ukraine-2ndsummaryreport_sept2022.pdf but, frankly, it is a waste of time.

Just one example:

Notice how this report presents Ukronazi information about Ukronazi shelling as if the Ukronazis were not Ukronazis.  They even included that touching photo:

Bottom line: it was exactly what anybody with a brain was expected.  The IAEA is to nuclear issues what OPCW is to chemical issues – an obedient parrot for the USA & Co.

Personally, I think that Russia should withdraw from those, and all other US-controlled “international” organizations and ban their official from entry into any Russian controlled territories.

Also, accepting a team run by an Italian (Italy is both a NATO and EU member, meaning that Italy is a US protectorate/colony) was a mistake from the get go (especially with CNN propagandists included into the press pool). This information is incorrect! Turns out that he is not Italian, but Argentinian, my bad!

Yes, the IAEA will leave some observers at the ZNPP, but if they will become “professionally blind” like, say, OSCE “observers” have been for years, then what is the point of keeping them in place anyway???

I think that the time has come for Russia to tell ANY and ALL the US-controlled to get lost.

Andrei

••••

The Liberty Beacon Project is now expanding at a near exponential rate, and for this we are grateful and excited! But we must also be practical. For 7 years we have not asked for any donations, and have built this project with our own funds as we grew. We are now experiencing ever increasing growing pains due to the large number of websites and projects we represent. So we have just installed donation buttons on our websites and ask that you consider this when you visit them. Nothing is too small. We thank you for all your support and your considerations … (TLB)

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Comment Policy: As a privately owned web site, we reserve the right to remove comments that contain spam, advertising, vulgarity, threats of violence, racism, or personal/abusive attacks on other users. This also applies to trolling, the use of more than one alias, or just intentional mischief. Enforcement of this policy is at the discretion of this websites administrators. Repeat offenders may be blocked or permanently banned without prior warning.

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Disclaimer: TLB websites contain copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available to our readers under the provisions of “fair use” in an effort to advance a better understanding of political, health, economic and social issues. The material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving it for research and educational purposes. If you wish to use copyrighted material for purposes other than “fair use” you must request permission from the copyright owner.

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Ukraine SMO Update – 1,700 KIAs for Ukraine After Its Kherson Counter-Offensive

Ukraine SMO Update – 1,700 KIAs for Ukraine After Its Kherson Counter-Offensive


Tons of thanks, a SMO update and some beautiful week-end music!

THE SAKER

First, my deepest gratitude to you all!

I want to begin today’s report by thanking all those of you who have reached out to help me and the blog.  In spite of the hard economic times, many of you have sent donations, offered to volunteer and, last but not least, said prayers for me.  Of course, your donations will help financially, but it is your moral support which most deeply touched me and which give me the courage and determination to keep on fighting this fight, in spite of the apparent futility of taking on an entire obscenely rich and powerful ruling class which is waging merciless warfare on all of mankind.  I wish I could thank each and every one of you personally, but I simply don’t have the material time to do so, so all I can do is thank you all here for your unwavering and kind support!  You are truly the best community any person can hope to have!

Now let’s turn to the latest news next.

The Ukrainian counter-offensive tactical attack in the south:

The biggest news out of the Ukraine is the failure of the much announced Ukrainian “counter-offensive”.  Here are the latest reports from the Russian MoD: (emphasis added)

The enemy suffered losses and was pushed back from Olginka, Thorn Ponds and Arkhangelsk.
A battalion of the 57th Motorized Infantry Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was defeated near the settlement of Sukhoi Stavki. Currently, the destruction of its remains is being completed.
To unblock the AFU units, 12 tanks supplied to the Kiev regime by Poland were transported across the Ingulets River. Some of the tanks were destroyed by the powerful fire action of the Russian troops. Several tanks were blown up in their minefield during a disorderly withdrawal. Only five Ukrainian tanks were able to break back, deep into the territory controlled by the AFU. During two days of unsuccessful attacks on Mykolaiv-Krivoy Rog and other directions, Ukrainian troops lost four combat aircraft: two Su-25, one Su-24 and one MiG-29. Three Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopters were shot down in the air. Russian troops also destroyed 63 Ukrainian tanks, 59 infantry fighting vehicles, 48 other armored combat vehicles, 14 pickups with heavy machine guns and more than 1,700 Ukrainian servicemen.

But this does not tell the full story.  1,700 KIAs might not sound like much, but in reality this is a huge deal for the following reasons:

  • These 1,700 soldiers were supported by armor, artillery and even some aviation, and the USA/UK had huge hopes that this much announced “counter-offensive” would yield some good PR.  The Brandon administration is absolutely desperate to show at least something vaguely successful, yet this so-called “counter-offensive” resulted in only a few tactical attacks which brought no tangible results whatsoever.
  • The size of this force shows that this operation was mostly about PR.  The Ukrainians never had a chance, not on the tactical level and, even less so, to develop tactical attack into an operational counter-offensive.  Considering that it took them months to prepare this rather modest operation, this shows how much the Ukrainian armed forces have been degraded over the past months.
  • Even worse for the Nazis and their US patrons is the fact that now the entire southern front just lost a lot of its best soldiers and hardware.  Considering that the Russians are reinforcing their southern forces (see below), this is an especially dangerous development for the regime in Kiev.

Also, 1,700 KIA in one single maneuver is the biggest defeat for the Nazis since 2014, even bigger than the Ilovaisk “cauldron”!

Crucially, it showed, yet again, that all that nonsense coming out of Kiev and the other Nazi capitals in the West is just total, utter and terminal nonsense with no connection to the real world.  None whatsoever.  Hence the mass freakout of the western ruling classes.

Now, just to clarify: did the Ukrainians take a few villages and positions?  Yes.  Absolutely.  Why?  Because the Russians had absolutely NO reason in the world to do what the Nazis do and “stand immobile to their last breath” in a static defensive line.  So they did the following:

  • Where the Ukrainian attack was weak, they used their infantry and armor to beat them back.
  • Where the Ukrainian attack was strong, they simply moved back, let the Ukrainians advance, and then wiped them off in what can only be called a “turkey shoot” (not to mention a useless butchery).

This is nothing new.  The Russians have done that since the beginning of the SMO.  In every case, the villages or positions the Ukrainians took (and triumphantly presented as a huge “peremoгa” or victory) saw the Ukrainian forces destroyed by Russian artillery, follow by a withdrawal (or total annihilation).

So next time when you hear that the Ukrainians took control of village/location X, always make sure to follow what happens in the next 48 hours and see for yourself if this Ukrainian “victory” then developed into anything meaningful.  As soon as you do that, everything becomes quite obvious.

Western weapon deliveries to the Ukraine

This is one of the biggest canards in this war.  Today, I will deal only with one aspect: the planned delivery of ex-Soviet aircraft to the Ukraine.  Basically, this is utter nonsense.  Like with ANY advanced weapons system, combat aircraft need all of the following things to be effective:

  • They need to be fully integrated into a combined arms operation.
  • They need to be operated by a highly trained crews.
  • They need to be used in sufficient numbers to achieve any meaningful effect, which in the case of the Ukraine means real military airfields, not dirt roads, highways or field refueling stations.
  • They need to be maintained/supported by a complex and advanced supply chain and qualified specialists.

Since none of that can happen, the deliveries of MiG-29s (or any other aircraft, really) to the Ukraine will make for semi-decent PR and that’s about it.  There are even rumors that the US is now training Afghan pilots to train them on ex-Soviet fighters…  Let’s see how many pilots the US and NATO actually can convince to fly these one way missions.

In reality, it takes MANY YEARS to form a capable military pilot, and there is no substitute for this.  So no, even if the US finds enough suicidal pilots to try to fly MiG-29s (or other aircraft) against Russian Su-35S, this will achieve exactly nothing other than marginally slowing down the Russians (who will have to deal with this new threat just like they dealt with all the others Wunderwaffen: HIMARS, M777, CAESARs, etc. etc. etc.).  Even the (so far hypothetical) delivery of, say, F-16s, will make very little difference.  There is no Wunderwaffe, least of all old Soviet kit (even when somewhat upgraded with NATO equipment).

Rumors of a major Russian offensive

Okay, as of right now, this is a rumor, but there is strong evidence of two things happening:

  • The Russians appear to have assembled one (some rumors say two) Army Corps composed of volunteers and equipped with modern weapons.
  • These forces seem to be deployed through and near the city of Rostov-on-the-Don.

Whether these forces were deployed as reserve force in case of a successful Ukrainian counter-offensive (however unlikely) or whether these forces will be used to attack the southern front is anyone’s guess.  In fact, it could be that these forces had and still might have both tasks.  And now that the Ukrainian counter-attack was defeated, they might well be used to move towards Nikolaev along the coast (supported by the BSF) which would put immense pressure on the over-extended and weakened Ukrainian forces.

In this context, I was recently sent a pretty interesting document:

This is a letter from the Mayor of the Siberian City of Omsk, who announces that three battalions of volunteers have been formed in this city alone.  It is reasonable to assume that similar things are happening in most other Russian cities.

Speaking of which, there is another canard which I have to debunk

Will Russia declare a full mobilization?

The short answer is no.  Furthermore, this question is based on a flawed assumption: that Russia’s so-called “slow progress” is due to lack of manpower (about the “slow progress” see here).  That assumption, in turn, is based on two major mistakes: the first it conflates overall manpower with manpower available at any specific moment in time on a specific sector of the line of contact.  What matters is not overall numerical superiority, but local superiority, superiority on your main axes of attack/defense. This is how Ze’s MILLION solider army ended up being defeated with only 1,700 KIAs: there never was a million soldiers army anywhere near Zaporozhie in the first place.

Second, the Russians have been fighting this entire SMO with less than 10% of the Russian military and with a 3:1 advantage for the Nazi forces almost everywhere.  You could say that the Ukrainians are fighting a positional war while the Russians are fighting a mobile war, counting on their qualitative superiority (in most fields, with a few exceptions – such as counter-battery radars and squad level need for commercial quad-copters similar to the famous DJI Mavic series, see below – and these limited disadvantages are now being quickly addressed).

Yes, I know, there are some LDNR officials who constantly whine about the fact that Russia is not fighting this war the way they would.  But with all due respect, it is one thing to be a deputy commander of an LDNR battalion and quite another a specialist in the Russian General Staff with several academies and years of command experience under your belt.  Furthermore, the LDNR forces, for all their undisputed heroism, courage and skills do not fight the same war as the Russians.  The LDNR forces are fighting to liberate the Donbass, and they have just recently acquired the kind of capabilities needed to even contemplate an operational level offensive. In sharp contrast, the Russians are fighting a strategic war against NATO and the US, so it is no wonder that their notions of what ought to be done differ.  Here is just one example:

What about the supposed lack of UAV/drones/quadcopter?  Did/will Russia buy UAV from Iran?

The problem here is that UAV/drones/quads come in all sort of sizes, from truly tiny one which you can fit in the palm of your hand, to large, strategic ones with advanced electronics/opto-electronics/EW/etc. and even weapons of various types.  So let’s separate the two.

Example one: a reconnaissance unit from the LDNR forces is tasked with finding out what is happening, or not, behind a small forest.  You can use a relatively cheap and simple, off the shelf, DJI Mavic (even a mini model!), which you can send a kilometer or two over the forest and to take a peek at what might be hiding inside/behind the trees.  If you do not have that Mavic, you have to send a reconnaissance patrol.  Going on such a mission is very dangerous, because not only can the Nazis plant all sorts of mines in the forest and under the leaves/grass, they can also set up an ambush (the Ukrainians are pretty good at that).  So if you are the commander of this reconnaissance unit, you are going to be absolutely furious that the lack of Mavics forces you to send your soldiers into a very dangerous situation, day after day after day.  And if you are young and inexperienced, you are going to blame the Russian military’s procurement system for not sending boxes of Mavics to the LDNR.

So, to the question “did the LDNR forces have enough Mavic-type quads before the SMO began?” the answer is “no, they did not”.  Once the LDNR officials and their supporters raised a big enough stink over that, volunteers from all over Russia began sending quads to the LDNR and things slowly (especially for those who had to risk their lives every day!) began to improve.  But this never was the “fault” or “lack of care” from the Russian armed forces, whose job is very different.

Now the Russian military has exactly *zero* needs for Mavic-type quads.  Not only that, but Russia has large stores of all sorts of advanced UAVs (see here for details).  As for the Russian military, it is not in the business of supplying LDNR forces with whatever they might need, it is in the business of fighting a war against the consolidated West, this requires a totally different kind of kit and training than the LDNR forces.

Example two: Russia needs long range UAVs to detect Ukrainian columns on the move, force concentrations, assembly position, battle formations, etc.  The good news is that Russia has plenty of those more advanced UAVs.  These advanced UAVs do not fly 1-8km in distance, but for hundreds of kilometers and their flight time is not counted in minutes, but in tens of hours.  In this kind of warfare, Mavics are totally useless.

Is it possible that Russia might buy some Iranian UAVs?

I would say that it is not very likely, but quite possible.  Why?  First, Russia and Iran are (informal but strong) allies, and the Iranians would probably love to test their gear in real, modern, warfare conditions (Syria, Iraq or Yemen do not qualify).  Second, the Iranians have superb UAVs, not necessarily better than Russian ones (it really depends on the mission and what the rest of the forces are doing), but very good ones indeed.  Since Russia is flush with cash thanks to the western sanctions, Russia could do worse than purchase an X number of Iranian UAVs and use them (or even give them to the LDNR).  Again, I don’t think that this will happen because of a simple problem: the more primitive a UAV is, the more you can use commercial, off the shelf, equipment (this is what the (in)famous Bayraktars are – assembled off the shelf commercial hardware).  But the more advanced a UAV is, the more it needs to be able to “talk” to a lot of highly specialized networks and equipment, most of which are secret to begin with.

[Sidbar: I happen to personally fly both cinematic quads – DJIs not to name them – and first-person-view (FPV) acrobatic/freestyle quads and, as a result, even a private civilian like myself can have equipment which could used in a reconnaissance situation like the one I describe above.  This is not different than LDNR forces using family and consumer radios (FRS and GMRS) to communicate, or the purchase of commercial laser rangefinders, GPS/GLONASS/GNSS navigation equipment and the like.  Nowadays recreational and commercial microelectronics are so capable, that you can buy most of what a reconnaissance unit might need online and for relatively cheap.  And if your pockets are deep enough, you even purchase get all sorts of very good thermal imaging systems.  So what the LDNR forces needed the most, is simply money to get all that good stuff.  Some of this is already being built in Russia but, if needed, Russia can get it all from China directly or through Kazakhstan.  For the LDNR the issue was always money, and this is why the Mayor of Omsk is asking for donations at the end of this open letter above]

In sharp contrast to the LDNR forces, the Russian military has plenty of money and capabilities which the LDNR can only dream about, including a high tech military industrial base which dwarfs anything Iran might have.

Conclusion

Initially, the Russians got absolutely destroyed in the propaganda war, at least that was true during the early months of the SMO.  Now this entire narrative is tanking (as evidenced, for example, this interview of Jeffrey Sachs on Democracy Now! or this video by Tucker Carlson).  Of course, the Neocons and the “extreme center” of the Uniparty (call them Republicrats or Demolicans – same difference) are still in deep denial and they are going through all the usual stages of grief.  My biggest fear is that these hate-saturated narcissistic imbeciles will do something really dumb and trigger a much larger conflict.  The Kremlin is acutely aware of this risk, and this is why the Russians are only using about 10% of their current capabilities (that is before even a mobilization).

Most of the nonsense we now hear about the Ukraine (all the plain silly theories) is now quickly falling apart.  All the hysterics of the Russian 6th columnists (à la Girkin-Strelkov & Co.) have failed to force the Russian General Staff to fight the war like the 6th column would have preferred.  Instead of listening to these “all-is-losters”, Putin decided to listen to his generals.  What a surprise!

Furthermore, as Putin and others have repeated innumerable times, the SMO is going pretty much according to plan (besides the undeniable mistakes made in specific locations, like moving Russian forces in columns towards the Gostomel airfield without first suppressing the Ukrainian artillery and diversionary forces along the road; but the Kiev faint itself, however, was a total success and it achieved all its goals).  All the recent developments further show that Russia will methodically achieve all of her objectives in the coming months (though the denazification of Europe will, of course, take longer, not to mention the need to denazify the USA itself).

***

CONTINUE READING HERE

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Ukraine Sitrep Operation Z: Cauldrons and Fatigue – and Rioting?



ER Editor: As The Saker staff says below, the commentator at Military Summary (Youtube link below) is predicting riots among the Ukrainian troops stuck in the cauldrons, where their situation is basically hopeless. As he points out, everybody’s got social media and knows what is going on. For quite some weeks now, dissatisfaction among the Ukrainian population, knowing their men are being sent into militarily hopeless, deadly situations where their own generals cannot always be trusted to do the right thing, has been registered. Think: Mariupol. Citizens in other towns and cities did not want this to be their experience, nor to lose their family members.

The energy/coal update would be funny if it weren’t the result of mad(wo)men in charge.

Note the final, economic point. This is the real underbelly.

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Sitrep Operation Z: Cauldrons and Fatigue

For the Saker Blog by Saker Staff

Best again today is Military Summary (ER: Youtube channel) and worth listening to and watching. He is ‘predicting’ a ‘riot’ in among the Ukie troops in the cauldron.  There is an update on Snake Island (Serpent Island).

What does become clear is that the map is going to turn very red in large areas very soon.

Yes, there is a cauldron with an estimated 1,500 to 2,000 Ukrainian forces.  This is where Military Summary expects the ‘military riot’.

The main take-away from the Russian MoD report is this:  “The enemy suffers considerable losses.”

Now we’re waiting for –

  • cessation of the shelling into the Donbass and
  • the results of all oil refineries in the Ukraine now non-functional and the results of
  • … this Kadyrov announcement: the imminent encirclement of Lisichansk and the subsequent cleansing of the city.

The Russian Defense Ministry also reported that as many as 500 Ukrainian troops from a single brigade were killed in the city of Nikolaev.

In the wider world, Ukraine War fatigue is setting in.  We still get reports that this country or another country will be sending wizzbang weapons, but if you read the fine print, it is usually dependent on arrival of US or other weapons in exchange. Here is only one example:

Slovakia is trading with Germany on the terms of military assistance to Ukraine, writes Buisness Insider. According to the publication, Slovakia agrees to supply Kiev with 30 Soviet-made T-72 tanks, but in return requires 30 Leopard 2A4 tanks from Berlin. Germany does not like this formula, they are ready to supply only 15 tanks there — one Leopard for two T-72s.  As a result, all tanks remain in their places, deliveries are delayed, the newspaper notes.

While Ukraine War Fatigue is setting in in the western climes, the fear of cold and a powerless future is also setting in. The disgust and fatigue with the Ukrainian refugees are now palpable. What also is turning decidedly red is some faces of the Greens, because we hear that in various places in the EU, they are un-mothballing their old coal power plants. It is of course not easy to recommission these plants, and one can only laugh because at least 70% of European thermal coal is imported from Russia.

Our own Mr. P, who knows about power plants and engineering wrote up a piece for us in The Cafe.  It is worth taking a look at: http://thesaker.is/moveable-feast-cafe-2022-06-18/#comment-1111759

A central idea is that the coal power plants can be taken out of mothballs, but what about the old skilled craftsmen?

Some overall themes that are appearing are that Turkey may want to leave NATO (or should we say, subtext, Break NATO) and the EU cannot agree on anything, so, they want to change their ways so that they do not need 100% agreement or approval on anything from the member states.  What this should indicate to us is that NATO may just be history in a while and the EU as well, in its current form. Something else can be predicted to change its current form, and that is the United States. In Texas they have this referendum to determine if it will secede from the US.  It won’t be the last state either.

We are in a tsunami of change, but there is one term that can be used and that is the old military term SNAFU everywhere.  This applies to Zelensky as well, as Zelensky fatigue has now really set in.   Zelensky addressed the African Union and only 4 out of 55 invited heads of state attended the virtual session.

2 Short Updates

The US Embassy in Moscow has a new address (https://t.me/donbassr/22283): 1 Donetsk People’s Republic Square.

Putin: The issue of creating an international reserve currency based on a basket of BRICS currencies is being worked out.  The Russian President also invited representatives of the BRICS countries to the economic forum in Vladivostok in September.

Source

************

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The Liberty Beacon Project is now expanding at a near exponential rate, and for this we are grateful and excited! But we must also be practical. For 7 years we have not asked for any donations, and have built this project with our own funds as we grew. We are now experiencing ever increasing growing pains due to the large number of websites and projects we represent. So we have just installed donation buttons on our websites and ask that you consider this when you visit them. Nothing is too small. We thank you for all your support and your considerations … (TLB)

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Sitrep Ukraine May 8: Yeah, We Have Some Big Deals

Sitrep Ukraine May 8: Yeah, We Have Some Big Deals


ER Editor: Please note in our featured image the photo credit belonging to Reuters. Photographer David Arakhamia belongs to the Azov battalion…

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Sitrep Operation Z: Yeah, we have some Big Deals

Prepared by Saker Staff

From the Russian Mod:  “Thanks to unprecedented measures taken by the leadership of the Russian Federation, with the active participation of representatives of the United Nations and the International Committee of the Red Cross, humanitarian operation to evacuate civilians from Azovstal plant is now complete.”

There still are rumors of high level military in the plant, but humanitarian corridors are closed.  A group of about 1,000 soldiers walked out with white flag.  The Russians have taken into custody enough people now to be able to stitch together who else is down there.  We wait, with a good level of inquisitiveness, for some perp walks.

From the Field:  The settlement of Popasna under full control – this is a Big Deal.

A very important strategic settlement, the capture of which breaks the first, most powerful line of defense of Ukraine in the Donbass.  We have the first videos from refugees detailing their struggle:  https://t.me/intelslava/28203 (ER: Popasna is in west Donbass, at the halfway point between north and south.)

Take a look at this map and it should not be hard to understand why this is a Big Deal.

Snake Island 🐍 near Odessa:  not even a little help from our ‘NATO colleagues’ could save the snake and the Russian Mod reports 💥 Near Zmeinyi Island (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/1398) the following have been shot down in the air: 1 Ukrainian Su-24 bomber, 1 Su-27 fighter jet, 3 Mi-8 helicopters with paratroopers and 2 Bayraktar-TB2 UAV. The Ukrainian amphibious assault boat Stanislav has also been destroyed.  This is a Big Deal.

A series of Warnings from the Russian Mod:

On the occasion of the 77th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War and the many military parades, we can expect Ukie action.

⚠️ Ukrainian armed formations have mined the dam of Kurakhovskaya thermal power plant reservoir (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/1403) in Pokrovskiy district of the Donetsk People’s Republic, which the nationalists plan to blow up, blaming “allegedly advancing units of the Russian troops”.

⚠️ The Kiev regime carried out yet another sophisticated action in Seversk and Serebryanka settlements of the Donetsk People’s Republic (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/1402) to discredit the Russian Armed Forces before the world community. During the provocation, fighters of nationalist battalions dressed in Russian uniforms and driving armoured vehicles with “Z” sign fired on private houses, forcibly took valuables and personal vehicles from people, and physically assaulted civilians who showed the slightest resistance.

Nevertheless, plans and rehearsals for the parades are ongoing:  Dress rehearsal (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/1376) of a military parade was held in Moscow.

Intel Slava Z has the minute details for today, as well as Readovka.

The captured Chief of Staff of the Ukraine has this to say:  “Ukraine could make concessions in order to end the conflict, the main points are a regime without NATO and a guarantee of non-aggression,” Colonel Dmitry Kormyankov, captive chief of staff of the 36th Marine Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

And is this a signal or was Pyotr Tolstoy just musing about the Polish border?:

“Russia’s military operation in Ukraine won’t end until the country is “completely denazified and demilitarized, so that it no longer poses a threat to the Russian Federation and cannot be transformed into an anti-Russia, as the West has tried to do in the past 30 years,” says (https://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2022/05/03/news/russia_intervista_pjotr_tolstoj-348021441/deputy speaker of Russian parliament Pyotr Tolstoy.

“I think we will stop once we reach the border with Poland,” added the lawmaker, who is also the great-great-grandson of acclaimed Russian writer Leo Tolstoy.

The collective west supplies Rubbish!

Becoming more clear now is that the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance are using the conflict in Ukraine in order to get rid of obsolete and decommissioned weapons. Rubbish is being brought to the Ukraine, and then the Russians destroy it.  This is now obvious. The disgusting quality of the Javelin anti-tank missile systems (ATGM) supplied by the United States and the Swedish-British portable anti-tank guided missiles NLAW were recently reported by a prisoner – a former soldier of the Ukrainian army.

Vadim Zholko, a soldier of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: “Their Javelin and NLAW grenade launchers, which were very much advertised, showed themselves in practice as they really were. There were misfires. They usually shoot one out of four, ”said the prisoner.  The fired projectiles explode at fifty meters before reaching the target, or do not work at all. “That is, there were many of those whose batteries were expired,” the prisoner of war shared his impression of what he saw. The man complained that the training at the training grounds was mainly theoretical – “they showed it in a fast way.” Why misfires regularly occur was not explained to recruits. The reason became clear during the fighting – most of the batches of weapons had an expired shelf life. Cheaper NLAW complexes also turned out to be far from perfect.

Bloomberg reported that Kyiv is losing a week-long supply of weapons every day.

This all indicates that we will see more fighting in spots, but then, seemingly, it will all fall down and the Ukrainian forces will simply stop firing.

The information war is not neglected by Russia, although they fumble.  On Friday, the permanent Russian staff to the UN held an informational meeting (Arria Formula) for the UN Security Council.  It was not Hollywood, but it was heart-wrenching.  The outcome is that the UN Security Council could do no less: they were unable to maneuver out of this one and had to agree to a statement to search for a peaceful solution.  Even with the United States holding the chairmanship this month, this united action could not be forestalled.  As the cauldrons tighten around the fighting Ukrainians, so the cauldrons are tightening around the actions of the very small united west.

This is the presentation: https://media.un.org/en/asset/k1p/k1pvngjn8e

Is this worth anything?  Yes, because these countries now cannot say they did not know.  This is the list of 15 countries.  Hold them to account!

************

Source

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The Liberty Beacon Project is now expanding at a near exponential rate, and for this we are grateful and excited! But we must also be practical. For 7 years we have not asked for any donations, and have built this project with our own funds as we grew. We are now experiencing ever increasing growing pains due to the large number of websites and projects we represent. So we have just installed donation buttons on our websites and ask that you consider this when you visit them. Nothing is too small. We thank you for all your support and your considerations … (TLB)

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Comment Policy: As a privately owned web site, we reserve the right to remove comments that contain spam, advertising, vulgarity, threats of violence, racism, or personal/abusive attacks on other users. This also applies to trolling, the use of more than one alias, or just intentional mischief. Enforcement of this policy is at the discretion of this websites administrators. Repeat offenders may be blocked or permanently banned without prior warning.

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Disclaimer: TLB websites contain copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available to our readers under the provisions of “fair use” in an effort to advance a better understanding of political, health, economic and social issues. The material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving it for research and educational purposes. If you wish to use copyrighted material for purposes other than “fair use” you must request permission from the copyright owner.

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The 2nd Phase of the Russian SMO Has Begun – April 19

The 2nd Phase of the Russian SMO Has Begun – April 19


ER Editor: Readers may also be interested in this update from Andrei Martanyov

See also this from Moon of Alabama: Russia Has Launched Phase Two Of Its Operation In Ukraine

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The 2nd phase of the Russian SMO + personal note

Dear friends

While there are no official confirmations (that I know of) from the Russian military, it appears that Lavrov is the first, and so far only, Russian official who declared that the 2nd phase of the operation has begun. Truth be told, pretty much everybody else thinks likewise. Considering the intensity of Russian bombings and artillery strikes overnight, which were reported by numerous sources, it certainly appears reasonable to me to conclude that this 2nd phase has indeed begun. For examplethe Russian defense ministry reported on Tuesday morning that its troops had delivered artillery strikes at 1,260 Ukrainian military targets overnight, including 1,214 locations where Ukrainian troops amassed their forces.

How long this phase of the war will last is anybody’s guess. Optimists think a week, pessimists a month, but in reality nobody really knows because the outcome will be determined not by manoeuver like during the first phase, but by logistics, specifically fuel and ammunition, in other words by mobility and firepower.

I remind you that the Ukronazi forces in the eastern Ukraine have been in a de facto “cauldron” (as I explained, you can be physically surrounded or you can be “blocked by fire”) for over one month, and that the Ukrainians were not able to meaningfully resupply them while the Russian side has quasi limitless fuel and ammo (in spite of the Pentagon’s hallucinations). Russia also has air supremacy and very heavy weapons, neither of which the Ukrainians have.

In other words, while the Nazi forces in the eastern Ukraine get slaughtered, the US administration in Kiev will have to change the narrative about “the glorious Ukrainian military is winning” to “Russians are killing babies” (without ever wondering WHY and HOW civilians and even kids ended up inside the Avtostal complex, assuming the recent photos of kids hiding there are real and not made in Kiev).

Nobody really knows how many Ukrainians are still in the Donbass cauldron, and neither do we know how their morale and determination to stand and fight to the end is. For all these reasons, giving even an approximate timeframe for this battle is impossible, at least for me.

This week is Passion Week for Orthodox Christians and I will be leaving tomorrow to attend the church services in our parish, about a 4 hour drive one way, so I will stay there until very late Sunday evening.  In other words, my presence at the blog for the next 6 days will be minimal, I will travel with a laptop, but I will mostly be busy with the preparations for, and the celebration of, Holy Paskha.

So I leave you in the tender care of my colleagues Amarynth and Herb who will continue to post guest posts and keep you informed.

For daily reports, I suggest you follow the (excellent) situation reports written by Nightvision.  Just please keep in mind that due to the nature of this second phase, there will be less maps of troop movements, and that moving one or two kilometers against the very heavily and deep defenses of the Ukrainians might mean much more than moving 10 or 20 kilometers on open terrain.

By the way, the Empire of Hate and Lies knows the true score, and they are massively freaking out.

They are now even declaring war on old Russian musical instruments.  As for “Ze” – he has now become a UN National Hero:

Will these infantiles ever grow up?

I doubt it, if anything, their antics “by infantiles – for infantiles” combined with the most massive exercise in world history to “cancel” any “wrong” information, show both how desperate and helpless these folks are.

As for the Nazis occupiers, they just passed a law allowing foreigners to work for the Ukrainian “intelligence” services. What a surprise, at least for those who had not realized that the USA has been running the SBU, and everything else in Nazi occupied Ukraine since the Euromaidan (and even before).

In conclusion, I just want to end with a reminder.  This is not a war between Russia and the Ukraine. This is a war between Russia and the united West, the latest one in a series going back at least a thousand years. Russia has been singled out for “cancellation” and we don’t want to be canceled.

While for eight years Russia did all she could NOT to get involved, the Empire of Hate and Lies did successfully force her into an open military intervention in the Ukraine, and now that Empire will do all it can to prolong that war and have it result in the maximal loss of human life and the total destruction of the Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, exactly the OPPOSITE of what the Kremlin wants: to disarm and denazify the Ukraine with the minimum of human loss of life and with as much of the civilian infrastructure preserved as possible. These goals are as asymmetrical as can be, and it is much MUCH easier to destroy than to preserve. Please keep that in mind when the next propaganda Tsunami hits.

One last request: unless this is both urgent and important, please do not email me between today and next Monday.  I will have very little time to reply, and I rather stay focused on the spiritual matter during these sacred days.

Many thanks and kind regards

Andrei

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Where is Gonzalo Lira

Where is Gonzalo Lira


ER Editor: Writer and analyst Gonzalo Lira has been reporting from different cities in Ukraine (Kiev and then Kharkhov) from a pro-Russian perspective. He failed to show up for a schedule interview with George Galloway. We’re publishing below what we know so far.

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Gonzalo Lira is missing!

Note by Andrei: if Gonzalo has been seized by the local Gestapo, his only chance of survival is either being freed by a Russian special operation (assuming the Russians can find out where he is held) or an exchange.  To be honest, both options are highly unlikely. Please keep him in your prayers!

VIDEO LINK

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ER Editor: Dr. Kevin Barrett for Veterans Today and Unz Review tracks down a March video in which Lira explains how a certain writer (Mark Hay) from the Daily Beast is actively trying to get him turned into the sinister Ukrainian authorities / intelligence services. See this article we put out recently:

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Gonzalo Lira: Murdered by The Daily Beast?

The Beast must have known that it was a “hit piece” in more ways than one

Kevin BarrettVeterans Today Editor

The power behind the Daily Beast/Newsweek is Jane Harman, a former Democratic congresswoman and Israeli citizen and suspected Mossad mole, suspected co-handler of Jonathan Pollard along with a former Philly furniture salesman named Benny Mileikowsky, who later changed his name to Netanyahu and pretended to be something other than a Pollock.

Leaks of wiretap transcripts involving a member of Congress and a “suspected Israeli agent” have shone a rare light on the scope of suspicion the American intelligence establishment harbors toward Israel and its supporters.

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The Liberty Beacon Project is now expanding at a near exponential rate, and for this we are grateful and excited! But we must also be practical. For 7 years we have not asked for any donations, and have built this project with our own funds as we grew. We are now experiencing ever increasing growing pains due to the large number of websites and projects we represent. So we have just installed donation buttons on our websites and ask that you consider this when you visit them. Nothing is too small. We thank you for all your support and your considerations … (TLB)

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Comment Policy: As a privately owned web site, we reserve the right to remove comments that contain spam, advertising, vulgarity, threats of violence, racism, or personal/abusive attacks on other users. This also applies to trolling, the use of more than one alias, or just intentional mischief. Enforcement of this policy is at the discretion of this websites administrators. Repeat offenders may be blocked or permanently banned without prior warning.

••••

Disclaimer: TLB websites contain copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available to our readers under the provisions of “fair use” in an effort to advance a better understanding of political, health, economic and social issues. The material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving it for research and educational purposes. If you wish to use copyrighted material for purposes other than “fair use” you must request permission from the copyright owner.

••••

Disclaimer: The information and opinions shared are for informational purposes only including, but not limited to, text, graphics, images and other material are not intended as medical advice or instruction. Nothing mentioned is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment.

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