V-Shaped Recovery Achieved – Third Quarter GDP Growth a Record Breaking 33.1 Percent…

For several months the Trump administration has been talking about a “V-Shaped recovery,” meaning the COVID-19 rebound would be as strong as the preceding quarter contraction.  Today the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third-quarter economic stats reflecting exactly that, a V-shaped recovery.

The 3rd quarter rebound in GDP growth was 33.1 percent, larger than the 2nd quarter contraction of 31.4 percent.  And keep in mind this is with a major part of the U.S. leisure and hospitality sector remaining severely impacted. [See Table 3, Line 20]

Despite several blue states attempting to stall their economic recovery, overall the economy is rebounding as expected.  Obviously the threat of COVID has been weaponized as an election strategy. It is against the interests of the administration’s political opposition to support a more honest, open and engaged economic recovery.

[Table 3]

All of these economic indicators highlight the visible reality on the ground.  Despite the ongoing challenges there is good news for the most heavily impacted sectors of the economy: leisure and hospitality. Well over half of those jobs lost have been recovered. In the past four months 3.6 million jobs have been gained in this sector. Employment in food services and drinking places is still down by down by 2.5 million since the peak in February but the gain is significant and reflects a “V-shaped” recovery ongoing.

All sectors of the economy are gaining jobs back at a remarkable rate; and the key demographics are benefiting in proportion to the initial COVID-19 impact. [BLS Report HERE]  With the expiration of the “extra” federal unemployment benefits at the end of July/August, the negative incentive has been removed; more people are stepping back into the workforce.

A September 2020 comparison to September 2019 [LINK HERE] – [PDF HERE] shows last month’s retail sales jumped a whopping 5.4 percent year-over-year.  That means last month saw consumer spending 5.4% higher than consumer spending before COVID-19 hit the U.S. economy. Keep in mind two-thirds of U.S. GDP is driven by retail sales and consumer spending.

As many of you know I have been traveling extensively throughout the country as I continue to brief groups on background DC, DOJ and FBI information from my years of research. During these travels I make a point to visit sector-specific businesses to inquire about their economic and business growth status.

The disconnect amid a ground reality compared to business reporting and financial media is actually stunning. However, perhaps that is because my physical ‘on-the-ground’ inquires and reports are ahead of the natural lag in the economic data rolling up to the accounting level. Here’s what I can tell you with absolute certainty.

The amount of heavy equipment, industrial equipment, hardware and goods being moved around the country is more than I have ever witnessed or seen in decades of travel. The mid-west, mid-atlantic, southeast, and more specifically the south in general, has more haulers and semi-trucks on the road than I have ever witnessed…. ever…. by a substantial margin. The same is true for rail freight and cargo vessels.

Regardless of what financial pundits and economic media might be saying, the underlying economic activity in the U.S. right now is explosive and moving at a much more rapid pace than before the COVID crisis [statistically confirmed today]. Regionally, business owners and operators all report the same thing, and the same need for a larger workforce. All of them are hiring; however, some sector specifics and regional specifics are much more intense.

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